The Book of Mike

"This is no junior college. This is the notorious University of Miami.” -- Marlins starter Dontrelle Willis, after getting knocked around for six runs in 2 1/3 innings by the Canes.

Tuesday, March 22, 2005

Prediction Tracking: What the Experts think of the Marlins

It's that time of year again when folks start to turn their attention away from filling out NCAA basketball brackets and towards baseball prognostication. Over the next few weeks I'll be keeping an eye out for new NL East predictions. If you see any, please feel free to pass them along to me and I'll add them to this entry.

The first set of picks that I came across comes from the Baseball Crank. Surprisingly, using a very complicated analysis, Crank picks the Marlins to win the NL East this year. While this pick is likely to be somewhat trendy this spring, the rest of Crank's standings are not so traditional. Most surprising of all is the choice of the Braves to finish last in the division - this on the heels of having won every division title since 1991. They also pick the Nationals to finish 3rd (ahead of both the Braves and Mets - and if you can't figure out who they picked to finish second, then you aren't paying close enough attention or you didn't click on the link).

Update #1 (3/22): Replacement Level Yankees Weblog presents two simulations for the upcoming season. Both have the Marlins finishing the year at .500, but one (ZiPs) has them in 4th place and the other (DiamondMind) puts them in 3rd.

Update #2 (4/4): Baseball Musings, Black Table, Hardball Times, and Baseball Prospectus added. For Hardball Times, I counted each writer's picks but not the consensus.

Scoreboard (where folks are picking the Marlins to finish in 2005):
1st - 3
2nd - 5
3rd - 6
4th - 4
5th - n/a

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