The Book of Mike

"This is no junior college. This is the notorious University of Miami.” -- Marlins starter Dontrelle Willis, after getting knocked around for six runs in 2 1/3 innings by the Canes.

Monday, October 06, 2003

Fearless NLCS Predictions

Seriously, how could anyone go out and wager their hard earned money on this NLCS between the Giants and Braves... oh wait, I mean the Marlins and Cubs? Any team that's left standing at this point in the year is capable of going 4 - 3 or 8 - 6 and winning the whole thing.

Yes, I know you could run all sorts of numbers and come up with a fancy statistical analysis to say who's going to win. I do that sort of a thing for a living all day. But baseball isn't always like that. They don't play games on paper or on your computer (ok, maybe nowadays they do) - they play the games in your television... I mean actual people play the games in real life, and that introduces a lot of random effects to the mix, which means just about anything can happen in a best of seven series.

For that reason, I will go out on a limb and predict that Alex Gonzalez will win the NLCS MVP. Now you are probably saying that's a bit of a stretch and that you're surprised that I would think going into this thing that Alex Gonzalez and not Jeff Conine, Ivan Rodriguez, Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis or Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Moises Alou, or even Sammy Sosa. But c'mon - there's only one of each of those guys and there are TWO Alex Gonzalez's and there's one on each team. That's pretty good odds. I ran the numbers and 2 out of 50 just about doubles my odds versus if I'd picked any other name.

Ok, enough stupid stuff...

This series should be a very interesting one - and I'm hesitant to put my picks out there before I read what Gleeman has to say tomorrow - but that's ok, I'll put it out there anyway.

Games 1 and 2 are crucial to the Fish's chances. Hopefully for the Miami Nines chances the weather will cooperate. I don't think the Fish - or many of us from Miami for that matter - fare that well in the cold weather (and for those of you in Chicago that probably means the low 60s or colder).

The Marlins need to come back home with at least a split to have a chance in this series. And I think game one (with Beckett facing off against Zambrano) is their best chance.

If the Marlins can steal a game in Chicago this week, I'm fairly confident that can win two of three in Miami and send the series back to Chicago where they'll only need to win one of the last two games.

Prediction: Marlins over Cubs in 6. Real series MVP - Juan Pierre


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