Barry, Scoring Runs, OBP, and the Demise of "Baseball Tonight"

As mentioned in previous posts (repeatedly, incessantly, too frequently, or however else you would like to classify it), Barry Bonds is being walked too frequently. Ironic indeed that Mr. Bonds initials are BB, the same as the common scoring symbol for a walk. Few folks today are aware that BB (and not “W”) is used to denote a walk, and that it is short for Base on Balls. Given the alacrity with which Mr. Bonds is racking up walk totals, one must wonder if future generations will assume that BB stands for Barry Bonds.

Maybe we should have known all along. This man’s name was meant for walking. Still, the frequency with which Bonds is being walked is unprecedented. To date this season Bonds has appeared in 25 games (two exclusively for one plate appearance, as a pinch hitter, and in both cases he was walked) and has been walked 44 times. At this rate, Bonds will be walked 274 times this season, which would by far eclipse the single season record (held by Bonds) of 198.

The number of walks Bonds is receiving is so ridiculously high because opposing managers fear the damage Bonds can inflict on the score and their pitcher’s ego with just one swing of the bat. In prior years, opposing managers would walk Bonds in situations like a tie game, with a runner on second base, and no one out. This seemed like a risk averse, but understandable move – although it was more questionable in the early innings. This season, it seems that managers are being even more cautious; Bonds has been walked to lead of the second inning of a scoreless game on more than one occasion. This seems to not only show a lack of confidence in the ability of your pitcher, but it also deprives the fans – particularly those in attendance, who have shelled out hard earned dollars to watch Bonds bat – of an opportunity to see a living legend perform live.

Many before me have written about how no one, not even Bonds at his best, is worthy of being walked so regularly. Even on his hottest tear, Bonds makes an out 50% of the time that he is allowed to swing the bat. During more normal stretches, like the past seven days, when Bonds has hit .273, he is even more likely to make an out – probably about 70% of the time. For those of you who are scoring at home, when Bonds is walked – either intentionally or, more commonly, un-intentionally intentionally – he reaches base 100% of the time.

To some of you this is likely an intuitively bad proposition. Putting a runner – any runner – on base, only increases the other team’s chances of scoring runs. With Bonds, the argument is that by walking him and putting him on first, your odds of giving up a home run or a double that drives in a run, are significantly greater. This is true, but please see the point above about the likelihood of making an out; you’re completely removing it by walking him.

An additional point that a walk-inclined manager might make is that putting Bonds on base curtosey of a base on balls is not a proposition that is likely to score a run (or more) for the Giants. This argument is reinforced by the fact that Bonds has the likes of Pedro Feliz and Michael Tucker hitting behind him. San Francisco’s Giants of 2004 are not the Giants of yester-year where an All-Star like Jeff Kent or Matt Williams could be found protecting Bonds in the batting order.

This argument does hold some merit, although it may be too early to tell. Last night, on the increasingly-becoming-unwatchable Baseball Tonight, “analyst” Harold Reynolds opined that on base percentage is overrated and that you need players who can score from first on a gapper. While I’m sure that old-school scouts across America cheered aloud upon this assessment (and may even be adding this as a sixth tool on their 20 – 80 point scales as we speak), this is a bit of a reach. Like double plays and other relative rarities, scoring a runner from first on a “gapper” is not a defining characteristic of a championship ballclub; sure, it happens, but not to the tune of being a deciding factor in ten (or so) games per year. Now, I haven’t gone back and statistically proven this; it’s just my gut feeling on the subject. I suspect that Mr. Reynolds’ analysis is very similar – more based on experience, than an actual analysis of data. I’m sure that someone out there could do such an analysis and prove Mr. Reynolds or myself correct (or find a different conclusion), or that someone has actually already done such a study.

I didn’t and am not planning to, but Harold raised an interesting point during his discussion last night – that it doesn’t matter how often some players reach base because they aren’t as capable as others of scoring. Harold didn’t say it this way, probably because he eschews onbase percentage, but he essentially said that a .450 OBP from Jason Giambi isn’t as valuable as a .375 OBP from Jimmy Rollins, because Rollins is faster (and/or a better baserunner) than Giambi, and is thus more capable of scoring runs for his team.

To some extent, this is an interesting premise because it is plausible that a runner could be so inept on the basepaths that he could do more harm than good. In fact, during yesterday’s Marlins game, the television announcers joked that if Juan Pierre hit a ball into the gap, he might catch catcher Mike Redmond, who was already on the bases.

Reynolds’s point, as well as opposing managers’ proclivity for walking Bonds, got me wondering how frequently Barry is scoring runs compared to what other players do. Typically Bonds ends up amongst the lead leaders in terms of runs scored, but it’s hard not to when you’re on base all the time and you hit a lot of home runs. But if Harold’s point is true, a Jimmy Rollins or Juan Pierre could be just as impactful as Bonds, because their great speed would allow them to score runs a higher percentage of the time than the typical ballplayer.

To assess if this is true or not, I took a look at the number of times randomly selected players scored runs and divided this by the number of times they were on base (hits + walks + hit by pitches) last year and over their careers. Below is a look at the players I selected (ToB equals times on base, Runs equals runs scored, and % equals the percentage of times a player was on base that he scored; Car equals Career – EDIT: table creating skills so poor that I'm adding commentary instead):


ARod.com - 2003 ToB 283, 124 R, 44%; Career ToB 2,166, 1,099 R, 47%
Giambi, J - 2003 ToB 284, 97 R, 34%; Career ToB 2,266, 818 R, 36%
Jeter - 2003 ToB 212, 87 R, 41%; Career ToB 2,137, 926 R, 43%
Maggs - 2003 ToB 256, 95 R, 37%; Career ToB 1,456, 592 R, 41%
Juan Pierre - 2003 ToB 264, 100 R, 38%; Career ToB 803, 324 R, 40%
Jimmy Rollins - 2003 ToB 219, 85 R, 39%; Career ToB682, 269 R, 39%
Kenny Lofton - 2003 ToB 212, 97 R, 46%; Career ToB 2,751, 1,245 R, 45%

Rickey Henderson - Career ToB 5,343, 2,295 R, 43%

Barry L. Bonds - 2003 ToB 291, 111 R, 38%; Career ToB 4,749, 1,941 R, 41%

First of all, this is obviously not a complete, nor thorough, analysis. I picked a handful of well known players: Giambi and Ordonez (Maggs, for the uninitiated) because they are known as mashers, but not particularly as base runners; ARod.com because he is all around (and deservedly) regarded as a great player; Jeter because he is over-hyped, and this (as you will soon see) is another good example of how this comes to be; Lofton, Pierre, and Rollins are all speed guys, who should support Harold Reynolds’s contention of the value of speed in scoring runs; Rickey Henderson is both a run scoring and getting on base machine, so I was curious to see what his numbers looked like (although I felt his 2003 numbers were not really relevant to the story here).

A number of things jumped out at me in first looking at this data. First, maybe Harold is right about Giambi. He certainly doesn’t seem to score as frequently as these other players. That may be due to the fact that when he played in Oakland, most of the talent hit ahead of him, and thus there were fewer opportunities for him to be driven in by the batters behind him in the order (he also didn’t light the world on fire last year in New York). Second, ARod.com seems to score runs an amazing percentage of the time when he reaches base, as does Kenny Lofton. Both of these players are relatively speedy – more-so Lofton, particularly in his prime. What each of these players have benefited from though is being in hitter friendly ballparks and high run scoring lineups for the bulk of their careers. I’m not going to get into park adjusted stats here, but you can either trust me or look it up. For those of you who are more of the Jim Kaat/Harold Reynolds mindset, I’m sure you recall the 1996 Indians and the run scoring machine that they were and the fact that Ken Griffey, arguably the most dominant player of the 90s, and how he hit behind ARod.com before he was ARod.com for many years. Those memories alone should be more than enough for you to just take my word for it.

The speed guys seem to score pretty frequently, but not a great deal more so than the other players. What jumped out at me about Jimmy Rollins was that his percentage of times scoring was low, as were his hit by pitch totals. I’ve never paid particularly close attention to Rollins, but I will now. On the surface, and looking at a very limited amount of data, Rollins doesn’t seem to be much of a hustle guy, in the speak of Mr. Reynolds. On the flip side, Derek Jeter has scored quite frequently, at least relative to Rollins. But if you put Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi, and the crew behind me in the lineup, I’d score a few runs myself (mostly because I’d probably draw a few walks too). I suspect, again, without really digging into it, that Jeter’s sparkling numbers here are more a result of playing in a strong lineup than any super-star level performances by Mr. Jeter.

All things considered, Barry Bonds seems to do a fine job of scoring runs in that he reaches home as often as anyone else on the occasions when he reaches first base. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Not only is Bonds powerful with the bat (and home runs give you one time on base and one run scored), but he is also the best power-speed combination in the history of baseball (being the only player to total 400 home runs and 400 steals – in fact he has more than 500 of each).

You probably noticed though that Bonds scored less frequently last year than he has over the course of his career. Like opposing managers have figured out, this is more a result of the relative ineptitude of the lineup surrounding him than it is a factor of Barry’s increasing age. In 2003, Bonds scored 38% of the time when he reached base. In 2002, when the Giants reached the World Series, this total was 33% of the time. In 2001, when Bonds hit 73 home runs, he scored on 38% of his trips around the bases. To date this season, Bonds is only scoring 33% of the time when he reaches base. So this is likely the root cause of the plethora of walks that Mr. Bonds is receiving of late: he is likely to score others, and quite possibly himself, if you let him swing the bat, but if you put him on base via the walk, he’s likely to get stranded out there.

While this is what the data says on the surface, it just doesn’t make sense if you work out the math and really think about it. Through yesterday’s game, Bonds has a batting average of .463 and an onbase percentage of .704. In nearly 45% of his plate appearances, Bonds is being walked or hit by a pitch (actually, so far this year it means a walk, as he hasn’t been hit yet – knock on wood). For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Bonds gets 600 plate appearances this season. If he is walked in 45% of those appearances, that’s 270 times on base. Given that Bonds is scoring one-third of the time when he reaches base this year, this means that by walking Bonds, managers are giving the Giants about 89 runs.

“No problem,” you say, “those 89 runs are far less than he’d create and score himself if you pitched to him. He’s just too good.” Oh really? Let’s take those 270 plate appearances and assume that you turn them all into at bats by pitching to him. To take it even one step further, let’s assume that he continues to hit at the implausible .463 clip he’s been on to date this season. That would mean that Barry would reach base 125 times. Assuming again that he would continue to score 33% of the time he reached base, that would mean 41 runs for the Giants. So, without accounting for the runs Bonds would drive in, you would save 48 runs by pitching to him.

How many runs would Bonds drive in over 270 at bats? So far this season, Bonds has driven in one run (net of himself on home runs – since we already counted in the runs Bonds himself scores when he reaches base) every 4.5 at bats (54 at bats divided by 12 – 22 RBI minus 10 HR). So in 270 at bats, Bonds would drive in 60 runs (other than himself), meaning that he would create 101 runs – or twelve more than he would score if you just walked him in those 270 plate appearances.

To assume that Bonds will continue with a .463 batting average over the course of the season it ludicrous though. That has never been done before, and I don’t see why it would be done this year. Yes, Bonds is phenomenal, and on a phenomenal run. But he hit .273 last week, and personally, I think he’s more likely to hit .273 over the rest of the season than he is to hit .463. .273 is too pessimistic though. Let’s assume that Bonds hits .345 over the rest of the year (his average, combined, over the 2001, 2002, and 2003 seasons). That seems fair, if not optimistic.

If Bonds hits .345 in those 270 at bats, he would reach base 93 times, score 31 runs, and knock in the same 60 runs (because the runs created is based on his 2004 RBI/AB to-date), meaning that he would produce 91 runs if you let him hit, versus the same 89 runs if you continue to walk him in nearly half of his plate appearances.

To make this analysis more accurate, you could do a lot of things, most notably to assume than in his 600 plate appearances that Bonds is going to get a certain “normal” number of walks. I didn’t do that here, but I suppose it would change the results to some degree. Overall, my point is that you don’t save much, if anything, by walking Bonds so regularly. He’s eventually going to go into a lull, and will then be a much better proposition to pitch to than it is to walk him and allow him to automatically score 33 – 40% of the time. Besides, it would just be more fun for the rest of us to watch.

Pitch to Barry!

Coming Home

Well, last week, as expected, was a tough week for the Marlins. After taking an impressive two of three games from the Rockies in Denver, the Marlins lost three of four to the previously struggling Giants in San Francisco. Yes, going into last week, I said that I hoped the Marlins would come back East with three wins in their games against their NL West opponents; however, that was when I (mistakenly) thought they had six games (two three game series) in total to play. It turned out that the Marlins actually had seven games, so three wins was not quite enough.

Particularly not enough when you consider how the last three losses came. Friday night came after the Marlins blew a 9 – 2 lead and lost 12 – 9. Saturday’s lost came when the strategy of walking Barry Bonds worked out as if they had pitched to him, and he scored the winning run late in the game. Sunday’s loss came without Bonds in the lineup; so the Marlins effectively lost to a glorified triple-A team.

Tomorrow though, the Marlins return home for a six game homestand (yes, I counted this time). Today’s a much needed off day. Starting tomorrow, they play the surprisingly strong Dodgers for three games, and then the red-hot Padres (and their funny colored uniforms) come to town for the weekend.

The Dodgers series should be interesting. I’m particularly looking forward to seeing Milton Bradley play; he seems to have awoken the Dodgers’ bats somehow. Hopefully Bradley will play; he say out LA’s last three games with an ankle injury.

I’ll also be curious to see how, if at all, the crowd acknowledges Alex Cora. Some are likely to remember that Cora played shortstop for the University of Miami during the mid-90s. In fact, he was the shortstop for the 1996 College World Series runner-up team; sadly the lasting image in my head of Cora is him collapsing on the infield in reaction to Warren Morris’s game winning blast in the 9th inning that won the championship for the LSU Tigers. When the Phillies came to town, with former Canes Pat Burrell and Jason Michaels, and when the Braves came to town with former Seminole star J.D. Drew, Marlins fans cheered for them, in an apparent acknowledgement of their ties to Florida baseball. I’m not so sure that Alex Cora will get the same recognition, but I hope that he does.

Later in the week, when the Padres visit Pro Player Stadium, I will be most curious to see their sand colored uniforms in person. They appear to be less bothersome on television than I expected them to be (based on the photographs I’d seen in magazines and on the web), but I think they might look a little odd in person. I suppose the sand color fits in today, as it is a bit like the throwback styles that are coming back into vogue; the sand color is reminiscent of the blue uniforms worn by the Cardinals and Royals back in the 80s (well, to some degree). But more importantly, at least on the field, is that the Padres are playing very well right now. It appears that their much maligned plan to build the team up in time for the opening of their new ballpark may be paying off. The Padres are not a club filled with house-hold name superstars, but they do have a solid mix of young prospects and contributing veterans. Those elements should combine to make it a challenging series for the Marlins.

All in all, it will likely prove to be a challenging week for the Fish. They will get two starts from Josh Beckett though, and that should be a good thing. Ideally, the Marlins would take two out of three games in both series, although I suppose that’s what the manager hopes for, at least, going into every series.

Other than that, I hope teams start pitching to Barry Bonds. I understand that it may be sound strategy to pitch around Bonds and to intentionally walk him on occassion. I highly doubt, however, that Bonds is twice a fearsome of a hitter as Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, or Willie Mays; although, by the count of the times he’s been intentionally walked this season and in his career, you would think he was (sometime soon Barry will have received twice as many intentional walks as the second and third most intentionally walked ballplayers of all time). By walking Barry so excessively, Major League Baseball is depriving you and I, the fan, of witnessing history in the making.

For the second consecutive week last week, Mr. Bonds was walked in more of his plate appearances than he was able to hit. Barry had ten official at bats last week and twelve (twelve!) walks. The previous week’s totals were even more impressive (or depressing), as Bonds had only nine at bats and fourteen walks. Going into the weekend series against the Marlins, I hoped that we would see a change in the recent trend, and that the Marlins, with their young, successful staff, would go right after Bonds and challenge him more often than not. They didn’t; in the three games Bonds played against the Marlins, he had five at bats (including two hits – one of which was a home run) and ten (ten!) walks. Bonds was walked in twice as many plate appearances as his total number of at bats in the series. If this trend keeps up, Bonds will have more walks this season than at bats. I’m sorry, but no matter how good of a hitter Bonds is, he doesn’t deserve this kind of super-superstar treatment (well, unless the Giants fail to score him when he’s put on base – which they are doing quite a bit lately).

Buy a Pitch to Barry t-shirt and let the world know how you feel.

Giving In

For some time now, many of you have asked how you could get your hands on something a little more tangible to represent your affiliation with The Book of Mike. I am pleased to announce that, as of today, you can now purchase a wide variety of The Book of Mike merchandise. Check out the link on the right side of the page (just below Barry) or click here. And speaking of Barry, make sure to check out the "Pitch to Barry" t-shirts. While watching today's Marlins - Giants game, in which Barry was walked four times, I became increasingly frustrated with opposing managers proclivity to walking the Giants' slugger; while many fans in attendance at games regularly sport signs with the same message as our new t-shirts, I felt that something needed to be done to allow the average fans to wear their feelings on their chests.

Buy the t-shirts for yourself, for your girlfriend, for your wife, for your dog, and buy them for your baby. Maybe a grassroots movement will actually get the man some strikes.

Resignation

I don’t care anymore. I simply don’t care. David Samson can comp Joe Arriola as many front row tickets as he wants in exchange for financing for a new baseball stadium, and I won’t care. I won’t think about it; I won’t write about it. Obviously, there’s a business side to baseball; I’m just choosing not to partake in it anymore.

I don’t care if you think that ball players are paid too much money. I haven’t seen a club go out of business because of the high salaries recently. If you’re hear reading this, you’ve probably contributed to it a time or two by paying much more than you used to go to a game. I do it too – all the time, and I don’t have a problem with it. Actually, I quite enjoy it and I find it to be a pleasurable way to spend my disposable income and leisure time.

I also don’t care anymore if you think that $8 for a beer and $4 for a bag of peanuts is too much to pay for food at a ball park. If you were stupid enough to pay your hard earned money to watch me work, I would charge you at least that much for a beer and peanuts. Actually, I would probably charge you more because you’re obviously a sucker and you have plenty of money.

I do have a problem with charging exorbitant amounts of money for water at the stadium, particularly when you are not allowed to bring in your own water, since it’s necessary for people to consumer water when they’re sitting in the hot sun, but I’m letting that go now too.

Baseball is fun and it’s a leisure activity. It’s not life and death. It’s not something that should stress you out or bother you. It’s fun. And I’m going to make sure that it continues to be that for me because I’m not going to let the annoying things off the field issues bother me anymore. I’m probably going to even stop reading about them.

Think of all the benefits this will bring to me: chief amongst these benefits is that when I come upon diminutive Marlins President David Samson in the bowels of Pro Player Stadium next time, I will have much less reason to worry about him approaching me, jumping up in front of me, and punching me in the shin, because I will have eliminated my opportunities to offend him on this site. This alone is of immeasurable value to me. David Samson is one of the most annoying figures in sports that I can remember encountering in my lifetime. Luckily though, he is not the general manager and appears to have little, if any, input into the product that is put on to the field. Yes, I’m sure he plays a large role in establishing budgets, but I don’t think he has much of a say as to who will be called up from AA or AAA, or who should be taken in the first round of the draft. For this, I am grateful.

Instead of wasting my time worrying and wondering about whether the Marlins will receive financing for a new baseball stadium in Miami, or if they will have to perpetuate rumors about leaving town, or if they are able to secure financing which schools and hospitals will ultimately receive less funding because of it, I am just going to enjoy baseball. In case you missed it, there are lots of wonderful things going on this year: the World Champion Florida Marlins have the best record in baseball, Barry Bonds is redefining what it is to dominate a game, new palaces of baseball were opened in Philadelphia and San Diego, and by my estimation, competitive balance is at a relative peak.

There are lots of fun things going on in baseball right now and I’m going to enjoy them. If you want think baseball is “big business” I’ve got news for you. Yes, there’s “big” money involved, but it’s all relative. Relative to real industry, major league baseball is small potatoes. Even to the owners of major league teams, the transactions involved in their baseball organizations are often small change compared to the mega-conglomerates they run and the personal fortunes they manage. If you enjoy reading about the business and politics of baseball, there’s plenty of interesting news to keep up with that includes bigger numbers followed by dollar signs and more intriguing commentary, as these operations are generally better and more professionally run; so, instead of keeping up with business in the sports pages, check out something like this.

Oh, and by the way, in case you missed it yesterday, the Giants did pitch to Barry. Well, sort of. Bonds batted in the second inning yesterday (leading off the inning) and singled). He was also walked twice, once intentionally. During another at bat, with no one on, Bonds homered on a curveball from Brad Penny. Granted, it wasn’t a great pitch, but it wasn’t a hanger either. Penny’s pitch was over the heart of the plate, but Bonds hit it as if he knew it was coming. Hopefully the Marlins will challenge him again tonight. That should make for some exciting baseball.

More on Bonds

Some of you, who can read as fast as I type, will probably like the title of this post.

Maybe he is human. In his last five games, he has only managed a total of two hits, and both of those were singles. Granted, he only has a total of nine at bats in those five games, and he has been walked ten (ten!) times during that span, but it may be possible to say that Barry Bonds is in a bit of a slump. Well, maybe not a slump, but he has appeared to be mortal over the past week or so. You might be particularly quick to jump to this conclusion if you saw last night’s game against the Braves.

After being intentionally walked in his first plate appearance of the game, Bonds was called out on strikes in the 3rd. This in itself is a rare feat. After being walked intentionally – again – in the fourth, Bonds grounded out weekly in his next at bat in the fifth (yes, he did single later in the game). But that fourth plate appearance last night was the most interesting Bonds at bat that I have seen in quite some time. Bonds is revered throughout baseball for his strike zone judgment (thus taking the called third strike in the third inning was so unusual) and his nearly unflinching discipline at the plate, despite the constant barrage of balls and unhittable pitches that are offered to him. Last night though, Bonds flinched. He swung at two pitches from Antonio Alfonseca that were undoubtedly balls. After the first two pitches missed by a significant margin, Bonds swung at the third pitch (and missed). On that swing, Bonds looked more like me than himself; his hips flew open, his head pointed towards the dugout at the end of his swing, and the pitch was the better part of a foot off the plate. The swing he put on the second pitch he offered at was not much better, but he managed to foul the ball off.

The point here is not to say that Barry Bonds is anything less than the best player of the game; the point is that for the first time in years, Barry Bonds looked last night, at least to me, as if he suffered from a mechanical and mental lapse. His swing looked un-Bondsian and his approach to the at bat was far less than the controlled and disciplined plan that we have so come to expect – regardless of how many unintentional intentional walks he receives. I have been waiting to see Bonds take a few hacks like he did last night for years now. If I were Bonds, I would have started swinging at marginal pitches a long time ago – well either that or I would have seriously considered retiring. But for the betterment of his team, Bonds has not really done that to date. He has accepted his walks and taken his trips around the bases, constantly hoping that his teammates will come through with timely hits. This year though it seems that the timely hits will not come to be very frequently; Bonds is not surrounded by the lineup that he has been in the past.

Maybe that caused Barry to swing at a couple pitches that he shouldn’t have last night. Maybe that has opened up some holes in Barry’s swing that will take a day or two to tighten back up. All of this comes at an interesting time for the Florida Marlins. During last year’s NLDS, the Marlins pitched to Bonds. This came as a great surprise, myself included, as most people expected the Marlins to go by the conventional wisdom and to “not let one guy beat you.” But the Marlins played with fire and won. Barry did a little damage, but did not homer in the series, and the Fish went on to win the series three games to one (you know the rest).

Had the Marlins – Giants series taken place a week or two ago, nearly everyone would agree that it would be best to walk Bonds in just about every circumstance. Yes, I have seen the research that proves that even for the best hitters, it makes sense to pitch to them because they will still get themselves out 60 – 70% of the time, and that walking such hitters only gives the opposition more opportunities to score runs. But that analysis was run with “normal” superstars and assumed they were surrounded by normal major league lineups. Bonds and the Giants are neither – or at least they weren’t a few weeks ago. Bonds looked to be on a tear far more fearsome than anything we had seen before in baseball, and he had a four year hot streak and career long track record to back it up, and make you think it would continue indefinitely. The remainder of the Giants lineup was, and is, inept, at least by major league standards. Thus, walking Bonds nearly every time he came to the plate seemed to be a fairly risk-free proposition. You could pitch around the game’s most dangerous hitter and let those who bat after him make outs.

Padres manager Bruce Bochy put it well though when he said that there’s almost an “obligation” to pitch to Bonds – by not doing so you’re impacting history; he went on to say that “Babe Ruth only became Babe Ruth because someone pitched to him.” While technically Bochy’s statement is not correct – Ruth would have continued to be himself regardless of his success or failure on the baseball field, that’s just basic science – his assertion is correct. By continuing to walk Bonds, be it intentionally or with the now more common un-intentional intentional walk, baseball is potentially being deprived of the greatest show that we may ever see.

And now that he appears to have returned to super-super-star levels from the previous high that he was on, I hope that we see the Marlins pitch to him in the three game set that begins today in San Francisco. Brad Penny, a man whom the Marlins turned off the stadium radar gun for last year – because he always looked at it and tried to throw harder, would surely like to challenge Bonds. That is just him and his personality. Tomorrow night’s starter, Dontrelle Willis, has had a relative amount of success against Bonds. Most of Willis’s experience against Bonds came against the Giants in last year’s playoffs where Willis received one start and also came out of the bullpen, specifically to face Bonds. Darren Oliver will face Bonds in the third start, and depending on how the series has gone to that point, I hope Jack McKeon lets Oliver go after him. I’d rather see Barry really bat than have the Fish improve their chances for a sweep on Sunday. Yes, I’m getting ahead of myself to be sure, and that one game may matter at the end of the year, but I’ll see another pennant race before I see another Barry Bonds. Pitch to Barry.

Books and Books

I suspect that many of you, like me, can read. Because of this, and because I would like to make some extra money, I decided to post a list of some of my favorite books in hopes that you would buy them too. If you do buy them, I get a small cut of the gross price you pay. Plus they are some really great books if I do say so myself. Even if you don’t like these books, feel free to follow this link to Amazon and buy to your heart’s content. I will get money for you doing so.

In no particular order, here are some of my favorites:

Moneyball – A must have for any serious baseball reader. This is the current generation’s "Ball Four".

Angels and Demons – Dan Brown’s sister work to the more popular "The Da Vinci Code". Both are very similar, I just prefer "Angels and Demons". Both are great thrillers and great reads.

Eats, Shoots & Leaves– Frequent Readers of this blog will surely be able to tell that this is a book that I personally need to read. Well, I have read it, and my grammar and punctuation are still horrendous at times. I like to think that this is because I usually fail to proof my work before it is posted. Still, I regularly fear that Mrs. Reynolds (7th and 8th grade English teacher) or Father Glynn (Sophomore year of High School Religion teacher and summer English tutor) will find their way to my merry blog and find fault with my writing and send me a marked up print out correcting my work. "Eats, Shoots & Leaves" is a great read though – full of funny stories and simple reminders of how to use grammar and punctuation just like we all learned back in school. Trust me on this one, it’s better than it sounds.

Deception Point– another great thriller by Mr. Brown. I prefer "Deception Point" to "Digital Fortress", but again, you can’t go wrong with either.

More to come…

Potty Talk/Environmentalism

One thing that has been on my mind (for more than a year now actually) that I’ve never really spoken of, is the urinals at Pro Player Stadium. Granted, this is a weird subject – probably the weirdest thing I’ve ever written about on this blog (well, maybe the Mr. Google person still wins). Pro Player Stadium has urinals that I think I have only seen in one other place (at the Port of Miami). These urinals are completely flush free, which is a weird concept at best, and a disgusting concept/reality at worst. Others before me have questioned how hygienic this sort of a set up actually is, as evidenced by the lengthy FAQ on JMG’s website (JMG is the maker of this product).

The benefit, of course, to this flush-free set up is that it saves water (there are also other benefits, but you’ll have to check out the FAQ yourself to learn of them). As many of you know (well, those of you who have looked down at a urinal or two in your day), it’s not uncommon for a urinal to use one whole gallon of water per flush. At somewhere like Pro Player Stadium this can add up to quite a bit of water over the course of a baseball game or a football season or a year. But these self-flushing urinals (or whatever the technology is called) proudly proclaim (it’s on the top of all of them) that they save 40,000 gallons of water per year because of their efficiencies. After checking out the website for these urinals (yes, it’s now official – everyone and everything has a website), it appears that this 40,000 gallon water savings per year is their standard estimate. In my mind this is too high. I can’t imagine the average urinal gets that kind of use.

(By now, if you’re still reading, you must be asking yourself why I care. Honestly, I’m not really sure. This is pretty weird. Not as weird as the post at The Hardball Times where the writer admitted to timing player’s times from home to third on triples. Yes, that’s definitely stranger than what I’m talking about here; especially when you consider the fact that the writer of the article admitted that, in order to provide everyone with valid times for each player’s triple speed, he watched each triple nine times and averaged the times using a fairly complicated heuristic. So I’m not so crazy after all, am I? It’s all relative)

40,000 gallons is a lot of water. To me, it seems like this is a preposterous sum of water to assume that switching from a standard urinal to a water free urinal could save you. At a gallon per flush… let me work out the math here… give me a minute… that would mean approximately 40,000 flushes per year. If you break that down by day, the average old-style urinal at Pro Player (or anywhere else) would have been flushed an average of 110 times per day, every day in order for each urinal to be saving 40,000 gallons of water annually. On an hourly basis, that would mean you would have to flush the urinal 4.56 times per hour, or once every 13 minutes. Keep in mind that this isn’t during normal business hours – it’s 24 hours a day, continuously. I suppose there are places like airports and train terminals that see this kind of activity, but I would have to think that it’s rare even at a stadium.

According to this source, there are 218 flush free urinals at Pro Player stadium. Based on JMG’s information, this would mean that Pro Player Stadium could expect to save 8,720,000 gallons of water every year just by using this fantastic technology.

I didn’t look this up, but work with me here. The Marlins play 81 games per year (not counting the playoffs every few years) at Pro Player Stadium; hopefully, they’ll draw 20,000 people per game, which totals to 1,620,000 patrons this season. The Dolphins play ten home games (including the pre-season and not counting their rare post-season appearance), and with 70,000 fans at each, that brings us 700,000 more fans . FAU football has a handful of games (let’s say 5 games with 10,000 people per, for 50,000 annually, and the stadium also hosts the annual Orange Bowl (another 70,000) and the occasional concert or truck pull (let’s call this 10 events at 50,000 people per – or 500,000 total). This brings the total number of patrons at Pro Player Stadium each year to 2,940,000. Obviously, not all of these folks are male, so let’s conservatively estimate that 75% of the patrons are men (this will make the water saving per person more achievable); our total number of annual men at the stadium is estimated at 2,205,000. In order for these 2 million men to use the urinals frequently enough to save the nearly 9 million gallons of water, each man who attends an event at Pro Player Stadium would need to use a urinal nearly 4 times per event they attend at the stadium (3.95 times to be exact).

We should also probably count the folks who work in the stadium and at the games. Let’s say there are 250 people who work year round at the stadium (all 365 days) and that these men use the urinal three times a day (not only are they always at PPS slaving away, but they are truly fascinated by this technology, so they use it as much as possible). By having these folks use the urinal technology instead of the urinal style we’ve all grown accustomed to over the years, almost 400,000 gallons of water will be saved every year. If you subtract those 400,000 gallons from the 8.7 million gallons the fans attending games would need to save in order to live up to the claims on the urinal, the average man would still need to use the urinal 3.77 times per game/event. This is just not going to happen, especially considering that the average event at the stadium is about three hours.

So what’s my point here? Well, I’m not really sure. This water free urinal technology sounds like a great thing. Apparently it’s clean, odor free, and cost effective – in addition to the water it saves. But the claims of saving 40,000 gallons of water per urinal per year seem to be a little outrageous to me. Is there no truth in urinal labeling? I just don't know what you can believe anymore...

Comments Fixed?

Thanks to many of you who pointed out that the comments weren't working again. I had to reset them for a second time now. Hopefully they will work this time and I won't break them again via my bumbling use of HTML code, or whatever all of this is called. I'm going to test it out with a comment or two.

Pitch to Barry

Although it seems that Barry Bonds has come back to Earth a little bit (last night his average fell below .500 for the first time in awhile, and one would think it will remain there for the duration of the season), in terms of how locked in he is at the plate, I’m still hearing a lot of discussion about where the Giants should bat Barry in the lineup. Felipe Alou has chosen to bat Bonds fourth in the lineup this year, which many people think is not an ideal spot. Others argue that since the Giants lineup is so poor without Bonds that it makes sense to bat him there, because in many cases the 4th batter will lead off the second inning and in instances where he doesn’t, there will be at least one runner on base in the first.

Generally, there are four places in the lineup that you could arguably bat Bonds. Most popular amongst people other than Felipe Alou, is 3rd. This is the traditional place for a batter with power, who also hits for average and in ideal cases, who possesses some speed. Bonds may not have the speed that he had in his earlier days, but he is also not the slowest person in the league either. As you may know, Barry is the only player in the history of major league baseball to have hit 500 home runs and to have stolen 500 bases. Actually, he’s the only man to ever hit 400 homers and steal 400 bases (yeah – I know, I would have thought that Mays was a 400-400 guy too, but I looked it up and he isn’t).

Fourth is also a popular choice for Bonds. It’s difficult to argue with the logic of Felipe Alou, who has been in baseball for a long time, and who managed Barry and the Giants to a division title last year. Batting fourth also gives Barry the best theoretical opportunity to come up with runners on base. This can be a good thing or a bad thing though, at least in a sense, because if runners are on second and third when Barry comes to the plate, he will almost definitely be walked – lately even regardless of the situation. But if he is pitched to, having runners on is exactly the situation the Giants are looking for with Barry at the plate. The downside to having Barry bat fourth is that each spot in the batting order gets about 20 fewer plate appearances than the spot ahead of it over the course of a season (I don’t have any data to back this up, but it seems to be conventional wisdom, at least according to the SABR-L posts I’ve read on the subject). Sure, this isn’t a whole lot (maybe one plate appearance per week, give or take a little), but given the pace that Barry’s been on over the last four years, there’s a better than 50% chance that he’ll reach base somehow or another and that gives your team a good chance to score runs. When you are as run deprived as the Giants are and will be (without an acquisition of some sort) this year, increasing your ability to score runs is of paramount importance.

Others have argued that Bonds should bat much higher in the lineup. Some have suggested that he should bat lead-off. This would guarantee Bonds the most possible plate appearances. It would also present opposing managers with an interesting dilemma at the start of every game – whether to walk Bonds and give the Giants a base runner to start things off, or to pitch to him and risk him reaching base anyway or putting the Giants on the board with a run rather quickly. The downside to this strategy is that Bonds would only be guaranteed to lead off an inning once per game; in the other innings, Bonds would likely bat after the 8th and 9th hitters batted, meaning that there would likely be very few runners on base during his plate appearances. Not having a lot of runners on when Bonds bats isn’t ideal either, as it limits his ability to produce runs.

Based on the premise that it is important for runners to be on base when Bonds bats, others have asserted that Barry should bat second, behind speedy lead-off man Ray Durham. On the surface this strategy appears to make sense, as it would put Barry behind a solid hitter who reaches base quite frequently; on the other hand, Durham is capable of stealing a lot of bases, but this skill would likely be negated with Bonds hitting behind him, because Durham would not want to steal second base and have Bonds walked as a result (since there would be an open base behind Durham). The benefit of getting Barry to the plate 40 more times over the course of the season may outweigh the reduction in stolen base opportunities for Durham. I’d have to run the numbers on that to be sure.

Personally, I don’t like that the Giants are batting Bonds fourth. I think it limits his plate appearances and given the bats that surround his in the lineup, I don’t think it offers him any additional opportunities. There are rarely going to be runners on base ahead of him, and when those runners are on base, it still likely isn’t going to be a situation where the opponents will pitch to him. If I were the manager of the Giants, I would bat Bonds third in the lineup; I would bat Ray Durham and Marquis Grissom ahead of Bonds, although I am not sure who I would have bat first and who would bat second. After those three, the Giants lineup is not very intimidating. If the Giants are able to stay in the race this year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a run at Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Beltran, or another big bat that might be available later in the year. With the start that Bonds is off to this year, it would be a shame to waste a historic offensive performance by surrounding him with inferior offensive talent. So far though this year it looks like that is what is happening.

Mmm... donuts...

In case you didn’t hear, the Marlins had twelve hits on Saturday night, winning a dozen free donuts from Krispy Kreme for everyone in attendance. All you had to do was show up at a Krispy Kreme store within 24-hours of the end of the game to claim your prize (well, and bring your ticket stub too). Unfortunately for the good bakers at Krispy Kreme, there were more than 40,000 people in attendance on Saturday night, meaning that they could potentially be handing out 500,000 free donuts. I can picture dozens of people like the old Dunkin’ Donuts “time to make the donuts” man cringing upon hearing this news on Saturday night. Although today I suppose they get a page or a text message telling them to come in extra early to start baking.

I did not go to try to claim my prize of free donuts, although I heard that many did. Friends of mine went and left after seeing 150 or so people in line. One of the newspapers yesterday showed a photograph of a line around one store at 1 am. It was fun to see folks at the game last night with their boxes of Krispy Kremes in hand (somehow they snuck them past security).

Sadly, that was about where the fun ended for Marlins fans last night. Nearly 30,000 folks were on hand last night to see Marlins’ second year lefty Dontrelle Willis take his 0.00 ERA to the mound on national television against the Altanta Braves, who have won the National League East Division Title every year it’s been awarded in the current form (since 1995) and they also won the last three NL West Division crowns that were handed out (1991 – 1993) – and let’s not get into 1994 for now. Willis was knocked around a little in last night’s game, including a line drive home run that he gave up to Atlanta’s Mark DeRosa. Even before the game started I was worried about Willis, who didn’t appear to be prepared for the long between inning delays due to the television commercials. Before the first inning commenced Willis stood on the hill after completing his warm up pitches for almost a full minute. Soon thereafter he gave up his first earned run of the season. I was surprised that the Fish didn’t hold him in the dugout a little longer before the start of the second inning; Willis was the first Marlin on the field and waited a few moments for Mike Redmond to emerge and catch Dontrelle’s warmup tosses. All in all it was a solid, but unspectacular, outing for Willis, who did not factor in the decision in last night’s loss.

It’s amazing to think that after losing many key players in the offseason that the World Champion Florida Marlins enter the fourth week of the season with a record of 12 wins and 6 losses. While this is a sparkling record – good enough to give them a full two game lead over the second place club in the standings, it is worth noting that the Marlins are 11 – 1 in all games not featuring the Braves and only 1 – 5 against Atlanta. While the Fish are still in first place, they have thirteen games left against the Braves and one would have to think that if they keep up their current pace against Atlanta that they won’t win the division, regardless of how well they play against everyone else.

Traditionally, the Marlins have not played well on the West Coast. While this is hardly a fair predictor of future success, given the roster turnover of West Coast teams and the Marlins, we will all soon see how the Marlins fare against some West Coast foes when they face off against the Rockies beginning tonight and later in the week against the Giants in San Francisco. I am particularly looking forward to Friday night’s matchup against the Giants which should pit Dontrelle Willis against Future Hall of Famer Barry Bonds. During last year’s NLDS Willis pitched well against Bonds both in relief and in starting game four. It will be interesting to see how the matchup goes now when Bonds seems to be as locked in as ever. It also appears to be an interesting week for Bonds as, allegedly, BALCO ringleader Victor Conte may have admitted to supplying Bonds with steroids in the past.

It should be another interesting week. If the Marlins return home with three wins from this road trip, I will be pleased.

Viva Las Vegas

And so it begins. In a surprising lack of keeping up with the details of the story, ESPN is reporting that the Marlins stadium financing deadline is still May 1st. Jayson Stark wrote an article that states that Mr. Loria would like to move the team to either DC or Las Vegas, which the article quotes him as referring to as a "gold mine."

If Las Vegas is a gold mine, why doesn't MLB move the Expos there? Their financial situation is worse. It looks like the politicing has begun. The inevitable is now upon us. The Marlins have put off relocation talk for about as long as possible. Now it begins as we enter the home stretch for financing a new park.

I guess I'm sad about this today for the first time. I don't want to see the team leave by any stretch of the imagination (well, at least as long as I live in Miami). If I was moving (which I'm not) to Las Vegas, I would be thrilled to see a major league team following me out there. But at the same time I'm completely opposed to publicly financing this new park. Unfortunately keeping the team here without public financing is probably an impossibility.

Oh well, I still get to go and see the D-Train in person tonight. I'll keep enjoying that while I can.

The Mannings are Right

Mercifully, the NFL draft begins today. For baseball fans in Miami this means the sports talk in town can move on from who the Dolphins are going to draft to how far the Dolphins will go in the playoffs, which nickel backs to watch when you take your kids out of school to watch mini-camp, and who the 3rd string middle linebacker will be next year. Occassionally, if there is some free time or extra space in the paper, some coverage might be thrown at the Marlins and major league baseball.

Sadly, in yesterday's Miami Herald it was reported that four UM players who are likely to be drafted in the first round today with the worst scores of all players at their position on this year's Wonderlic test. For those of you who don't know, the Wonderlic is the NFL's version of an IQ test and it is used to measure a prospect's aptitude for learning plays, schemes, responsibilities, etc in their career in the league. Carlos Joseph, Sean Taylor, Kellen Winslow Jr and Vernon Carey were amongst the low scorers. Carlos Joseph led the players in futility by answering only 14% of the questions correctly (note to Carlos - next time your odds are better if you pick one letter on the Scantron and choose it every time. If the choices are always A - E, you'll probably come back with a 20% on the test, nearly a 50% improvement on what you scored. I'd explain it in more detail for you, but I don't want to inflict math upon you unnecessarily). At least the low scores explain some of Winslow's immature outbursts and rollercoaster like ride up-and-down performances last season. I'm embarrassed to be a Hurricane today. I'm beyond expecting college football players, and even college athletes in general, to be equals to their peers academically (although Canes LB Jonathan Vilma and former OL Joaquin Gonzalez are notable exceptions), I am ashamed that the University of Miami's football players shake out at the low end of the scale against their football playing peers.

On an unrelated note, I must admit that I wholeheartedly agree with the Eli Manning and his family's decision to refuse to play for the San Diego Chargers should he be selected by them today. I too would refuse a multi-million dollar contract and signing bonus from a professional sports team in San Diego. To think that Manning would even consider it is preposterous. Ok, I can't even type that with a straight face.

White Sox

Readers of this blog tend to fall into one of four camps. First there are Marlins fans who have few other choices when they want to read commentary on their team. Based on the emails I receive, this seems to be the bulk of the readers. Second are people who find this site through The Hardball Times, Sportsblogs, Baseball Musings, or another link. These are some of my favorite readers because, at least in part, it means that other people are referencing what’s written here. Third are people who find their way here through highly unusual entries into search engines (see the “Mr. Google” post). This simply scares me and I wish these people would read and/or click elsewhere. Fourth are people who actually know me personally. Most of these people know me as a life long White Sox fan, which I still am by the way, although that might not come across in much of what gets written here. These people tend to ask me why there isn’t much coverage of the Sox (probably better heard than written – that “Sox” part). Since we’re doing lists today, there are probably two reasons. One, most of the interest of the people who read here is in the Marlins. Second, the Marlins are just easier to cover. I can’t escape it (as much as I want to and despite how many years I fought it despite being in South Florida). The Marlins are on television, the radio, the newspaper – everywhere. I even live about a mile away from Marlins en Miami, which despite my protests to the contrary, is not a typo in the store’s name but the spelling in Espanol.

I still watch and read about the White Sox all the time though. In fact the Sox are the main reason that I buy the baseball package each year. Last night’s game was particularly enjoyable as the White Sox finally beat the Yankees at home (and how fortunate are the Sox that their regular season schedule with the Yankees is now complete? Yes, it’s weird to have played all of your games for the year against one team (two actually by the time the Rays series ends this weekend) before the end of April, but those are some of the quirks of the new unbalanced schedule).

One thing that jumps out at me more than any other in watching White Sox games this season is the dramatic changes to the former New Comiskey Park – aka US Cellular Field. The outfield wall is green again, like in the old stadium (although I must say that the retired numbers with images of the players is not my favorite – numbers only please). The lettering for the eateries in the outfield looks much like it did in Old Comiskey too. Rumor has it that the royal blue seats that fill the stadium will be replaced after the year and replaced with new green seats. Should this be true, I guarantee that I will make my first ever visit to new Comiskey Park. While I attended many games at old Comiskey, I have never set foot into new Comiskey. I haven’t actually seen it in person since it was finished being built. That is partially the result of me having lived in Arizona and Florida during the entirety of its existence but also partially due to me just not feeling right about visiting the place. But with the changes they have made and are making, the thought of it is more tolerable to me. Plus, I haven’t seen a (non-spring training) White Sox game in person in more than a dozen years.

Well, that’s true for now. Come June the White Sox will visit the Marlins in Miami during interleague play, renewing that age old rivalry… well, I can’t even fake that. About the only thing connecting the two teams is that Charles Johnson, former major league All-Star played for both teams (the White Sox briefly and the Marlins in two stints to date). That and that the Marlins and White Sox have two of the most notorious World Series related incidents in history – the Marlins being their post 1997 championship fire sale and the Black Sox 1919 fixing of the series.

When these two teams meet in Miami I fear that I will become like those Dallas Cowboys fans I used to loathe in Phoenix. As much as it is painful to admit this publicly, I am an Arizona Cardinals football fan. I grew up in Phoenix and my dad always had season tickets, well since the time the team moved to Arizona when I was in 6th grade. We always went to the games and despite their profound ineptness I still follow the team to this day (the day will never come that I cheer for the Dolphins). My dad and I would always joke at Cardinals games how many fans and season ticket holders were Cardinals fans for every game but one every year. That one game was when the Cowboys came to town and the people you would see every other week in Aeneas Williams jerseys and Neil Lomax garb would suddenly be sporting Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin paraphernalia. This was not the kind of loyalty that I was raised to exhibit.

But I think that’s how it will be when the White Sox come to town in June. I already have tickets to one of the games as part of my mini-plan. I plan on attending that game in neutral gear and simply enjoying the game. I will in all likelihood attend the other two mid-week games, but in a different section than the one I normally sit in. I think this will make me more comfortable with being a White Sox fan for three games in Marlins territory.

Oh – and by the way – during last night’s game I noticed for the first time that when a White Sox player hits a home run they still shoot off fireworks, but they don’t seem to come out of the scoreboard anymore. Is that right? Where do they come from? Why don’t they use the scoreboard anymore? Drop me a line or leave a comment down below.

Stadium deadline pushed back yet again

Despite Marlins' President David Samson's repeated statements that financing for a new ballpark must be in place by March 15th... wait, let's make that May 1st. Yes, for sure May 1st. It has to be by May 1st otherwise the current ownership will no longer be able to sustain the losses they are currently incurring ($17 million last year, despite the World Series run if you believe the Marlins statements, $11.6 million last year if you believe Forbes). The Orange Bowl location is not acceptable... the Orange Bowl site is the Marlins preferred site.

Well today it comes out that Samson is pushing the deadline back, yet again to May 6th. A handful of extra days is not a big deal, granted. What is a big deal is that the Marlins are pushing back the deadline but even if they work something out with the city by May 6th, they will still be more than $50 million short of the money needed to finance their $325 million retractable roof stadium. This brings up so many issues that I'm not even sure where to start.

To date the Marlins have agreed to throw in $137 million. The county (Miami-Dade) has agreed to chip in with $73 million, which will come from bed tax money (so thank you to those of you who rent hotel rooms on South Beach). That brings the total to $210 million, or $115 short of what's needed. As you probably already heard, the state legislature has thus far refused to give the team an additional $60 million (over 30 years) in the form of tax rebates.

In today's Miami Herald article, it is intimated that the city might sell the Miami Arena (former home to the Heat and Panthers before it was superceded by the American Airlines Arena and Office Depot Center - both publicly financed) to a local parking lot magnate. Somehow the $25 million in proceeds that this sale is expected to generate are already ear-marked, at least in some people's eyes for financing the baseball stadium. The county also funds about $6 million annually right now for the stadium and this money too might be headed to the new ballpark.

While I would probably use the stadium as much as anyone, I am opposed to publicly financing this stadium - even if it does use bed tax money and other such sources and does not cause new taxes to be levied or existing taxes to be raised. It simply doesn't make sense for the city of Miami or Miami-Dade county. Miami is the poorest major metropolitan area in the United States. Mr. Loria feels that stadiums have been publicly financed in other cities, so it should be done in Miami for the Marlins as well. He's right - other cities have come up with the cash or tax benefits for baseball (and other stadiums) recently. Miami (and Ft. Lauderdale/Broward County) have already done this. Less than 20 years ago the Miami Arena was built. Although the city is still paying for it, it is rarely used. Occassionally a second rate circus comes to town or a minor league hockey team tries to make a go of it, but so far nothing has really lasted. American Airlines Arena was built less than five years ago for the Miami Heat just down the street from the Miami Arena. From the AAA's concourse you can see the Miami Arena. The Florida Panthers also play in a publicly financed stadium across town that is about five years old. The City of Miami also owns the Orange Bowl (no, not where they play the annual Orange Bowl, but the stadium where those games used to take place). The OB is used about six times per year by the Miami Hurricanes and a few other times for soccer and concerts. Since the Miami Arena is sucking up funds to the tune of $6 million annually in maintenance and upkeep, I would expect that the Orange Bowl costs at least as much in that it is larger (more than triple the seating capacity), outside, and older.

What I have not seen discussed so far is how cost overruns will be handled. The Marlins have repeatedly insisted (almost as often as they have said that their deadlines are firm) that a 38,000 retractable roof stadium will cost $325 million. Almost everyone else - public officials, others who have built such stadiums - feel that such a stadium would cost more in the neighborhood of $500 million. Since they're having such a hard time coming up with the first $300 or so million, hopefully the overruns will be worked out in advance. Somehow though I suspect I will be funding my share of this through increased tolls or a new tax or that you will be paying it for me when you go and stay in one of our lovely oceanfront hotel rooms. :-)

As long as I'm in Miami I hope the Marlins stay here because I am a fan of major league baseball. I really enjoy being able to go out to the ballpark, watch a competitive team, and see the stars of the league when they come to town. But still, part of me is curious to see what the "or else" that the Marlins are softly threatening with their financing deadlines. I'm not quite sure what the or else could be. The Montreal Expos have been actively looking to move for two years now. There aren't any real suitors. The most logical option is not even under consideration - to move a team or two to the metro New York City area, because doing so would put a big, but needed, damper on the Yankees revenue streams. What are the Marlins going to do if they don't receive a new stadium?

The Marlins have won two World Series titles in eleven years, all while playing at Pro Player/Joe Robbie Stadium. Granted, it is not the most fan friendly, appealing, or otherwise pleasant baseball stadium, but it is functional. The biggest problem for the Marlins is that, because of their lease, they are not able to generate the revenues that other clubs can (a big portion of their parking, concession, ticket, and other revenue goes to Wayne Huizenga and his company that owns/operates the stadium). Maybe if financing for a new ballpark doesn't work out, the Marlins can go after current Red Sox and former Marlins/Yankees owner John Henry (or whomever negotiated this deal) for negligence in regards to the terms he agreed to for the team's current stadium lease.

But this brings up another issue with the Marlins plans for a new stadium. We collectively, whoever the taxpayers are that fund this stadium, are going to throw $200 - $400 million dollars (net of the Marlins contribution) in for this stadium. Sure, some of the money will be in tax incentives and other things that won't directly come out of anyone's pocket, but if this money wasn't given to the Marlins, other taxes wouldn't need to be levied on the rest of us. In the end though, after the Marlins get this stadium, they think they'll be able to afford a $50 - $55 million payroll (in today's dollars). This year that would mean the Marlins could afford what they have on the field. No more, no less. We'll continue to lose the Derrek Lee's of the world when they hit free agency, and let's not even talk about being in the mix to hold onto a Pudge Rodriguez or being able to make a run after a Vladimir Guerrero. Other teams who have had stadiums financed have been able to put more into the product they put on the field (yes, I know the Marlins won the World Series last year so they were at least competitive, but this is also a club that's had two winning seasons out of eleven) and not just to cut their losses which is what the Marlins ownership is trying to accomplish here. Maybe what the Marlins need more than a new stadium is some owners with deeper pockets.

I guess we'll all just have to wait and see.

Break out the brooms again

Despite trailing 5 – 1 at one point last night, the Marlins came back and beat the Phillies 8 – 7 in twelve innings. Obviously Mike Lowell was the star of the game – given that he made some sparkling plays in the field and hit three home runs (he also threw one ball away, but that’s largely irrelevant now).

What was interesting was the performance of the Marlins pitching staff. After throwing five shutout innings to open the game, Carl Pavano was roughed up a bit in the 6th, giving up five earned runs in one-third of an inning plus. He was removed from the game and succeeded by six relievers, five of whom appeared before extra innings. While the bullpen did give up two runs (both by usually – at least since the Red Sox released him – reliable Chad Fox), three of the six relievers used by the Marlins last night had ERAs of 0.00 (yes, I know it’s early). Even after giving up two runs in relief, Fox’s ERA is only 3.00. This is encouraging for the Marlins as the bullpen (and for some reason not Alex Gonzalez) was supposedly the team’s biggest question mark coming into the year. So far, the bullpen is a big reason why the Fish are off to a 10 – 4 start.

Rumors have circulated lately on both sides of the fence about the status of Phillies’ manager Larry Bowa’s job security. After a loss like last night’s, I would have to think that his standing with the team is on thinner ice than before. Should the Marlins be able to finish off the sweep against the Phillies today, Bowa’s grasp on the job will become even more tenuous. Unfortunately for Bowa, the Phillies luck with the bullpen so far this year has been about exactly opposite that of the Marlins. After struggling last season with the bullpen, the Phillies went out and acquired an array of arms that offseason prognosticators were sure would be locks to finish out games for the Phillies. But in a performance endemic of their season to date, the Phillies bullpen gave up seven runs (three earned) in six innings last night. High priced acquisitions Billy Wagner, Tim Worrell, and Roberto Hernandez were all roughed up in the melt down. Lost in this performance was a fairly solid outing from Phillies starter Eric Milton.

Pitch Counts – or the Club that brought you AJ Burnett’s arm problems now brings you…
Marlins pitching coach Wayne Rosenthal was interviewed on the radio this morning and when asked about pitch counts and how the club is working to keep their young pitchers fresh over the duration of the season, Rosenthal said that they are being mindful of pitch counts. He was quick to note that in only three of the Fish’s first fourteen games has the Marlins starter thrown more than 100 pitches. He also pointed out that two of those totals were 102 and 107. Rosenthal failed to point out that two of the three high pitch count outings this year were Dontrelle Willis’s and that most who are concerned about young Marlins pitchers getting tired are worried about Willis having a repeat performance this season of his post-All-Star break numbers last year. It’s early though and Willis’s first high pitch count outing was the result of him rolling along through the Expos lineup so smoothly (retiring a dozen in a row at one point). It was simply difficult to take him out at that point, but his pitch count did end up around 120. In the other start where he exceeded 100 pitches, Willis was just being allowed to finish out an inning where he really hadn’t encountered any trouble. That said, one of the other reasons Rosenthal and McKeon have said that they are allowing some pitchers to work deep into games early this year (and in Spring Training too) because many of the Marlins showed up in such great shape this season. Allegedly they missed the banquet circuit that so many World Champions succumb to…

From the around the league…
Oddities from last night… Barry Bonds did not homer. It’s absurd to say, but that’s news. Barry has raised expectations to the point where everyone expects him to homer in at least every game if not every at bat. But that was a difficult thing to do last night. In the Giants’ last two games, Barry saw 29 pitches. Five of those were strikes. Barry swung at only one and hit that for a home run into McCovey Cove. Largely lost in Barry’s homer barrage is that the Giants are 3 – 6 (including last night’s homer-less game) since Bonds started on his most recent tear.

Alex Rodriguez did hit a home run last night, and so far this season that’s as big of a story as Barry Bonds not hitting a home run. The funny thing about ARod.com’s homer last night was that he didn’t think it was headed out of the park when he hit it. In fact, he seemed to think that it was a foul ball initially. When he realized that it was well fair, ARod.com took off towards first (it was a low liner and looked like it might hit off the wall). The fact that ARod.com’s half swing produced an opposite field home run and that he didn’t even realize it speaks volumes both to his strength and also to the depths of the fun that he is in (and possibly breaking out of given last night’s blast) right now.

Trade rumors that I’m starting…
Alex Gonzalez’s play at shortstop has been frustrating of late. Many of you probably remember seeing Miguel Cabrera play shortstop versus the Cubs in last year’s NLCS. I’d like to see a lot more of that sometime soon – like as in this season. Cabrera was signed by the Marlins as a 16-year old as a shortstop. He was moved to third base in hopes that would allow him a quicker path to the majors, as it was expected at the time that Gonzalez would be in his way. But then Mike Lowell developed into as much, if not more, than what people hoped, so Cabrera was quickly converted into a left fielder last season during his stint in AA. Cabrera’s move was also aided by the total lack of production from any left fielder at the major league level. As much as Todd Hollandsworth, Brian Banks, and company are nice people, they simply weren’t getting the job done last year (and that’s starting to sound a little bit like this year with Jeff Conine out there).

But moving Cabrera to shortstop and sending Gonzalez and some prospects to the White Sox for Magglio Ordonez or Carlos Lee or to Kansas City (who would have less use for Gonzalez) for Carlos Beltran would be a huge upgrade for the Fish. The specifics of whom for whom probably aren’t well conceived on my part, I’ll give you that, but the concept is something very intriguing. Even without a trade, moving Cabrera to short might be a way to get Abe Nunez’s bat into the lineup more frequently, which would also likely provide the Fish with an offensive upgrade (or at least limit the offensive offense produced by Alex Gonzalez).

Fun and Excitement Returns

I talk about fun and excitement regularly in reference to Dontrelle Willis. Some of you probably think I'm just hung up on that, but it actually comes from something Dontrelle said quite frequently in interviews last year. When broadcasters or other media types would ask Dontrelle how he was enjoying major league life, his newfound success, or something similar, he would usually respond by saying something to the effect of how much fun he was having, how honored he was to be there, and how he was going to keep trying to be about fun and excitement - to bring some of that to the ballpark for himself, his teammates, and the fans.

While tonight's start was certainly not his most spectacular of the year, Willis brought the fun and excitement again - and he may have actually brought some of it out of his teammates, although not always in ways we would all enjoy. Well, at least those of us who were cheering for the Marlins.

Willis pitched 6 2/3 innings against the Phillies tonight, giving up 4 hits while walking none and striking out 3. It was encouraging to see Willis walk no one and to post an in game WHIP of less than 1.00, but he did still work deep into counts - throwing 102 pitches (65 for strikes). The Phillies did score one run tonight (while Willis was in the game) but it was unearned, so Dontrelle has still not given up an earned run this year (through 19.1 innings) and is now 3 - 0 on the year.

Coming into the game Dontrelle told the media that "no one wants to be a one year wonder." Willis is on track to prove that he was no such thing last season.

Some of his teammates are starting to make us wonder though. For the second game in a row, Miguel Cabrera lost a routine fly ball which allowed a run to score. Tonight the run was of little consequence (the dropped ball in the previous game cost the Marlins the game), but it also wasn't made difficult by the sun, like the ball on Sunday, although the lighting at Philadelphia's new Citizens' Bank Park may have complicated the issue some.

Alex Gonzalez was particularly dreadful tonight, both in the field and at the plate. Usually the book on Alex is that his glove is so good that if he just fields his position up to the high standards he has set for himself, any offense that he might provide is merely icing on the cake. However, he committed one error on a fairly routine grounder in the hole and made another error in judgment (although not in the scorebook) in throwing to third base in an attempt to gun down a non-forced runner on another ground ball.

Earlier in the game Gonzalez had avoided being hit by a pitch by attempting to swing at it. Miraculously Gonzalez was able to make contact with the ball, although he did fall down while doing so. The combination of athleticsm and total lack of strike zone awareness Gonzalez displayed on that pitch was mind-numbing.

As feared on this site earlier today, Jeff Conine again looked brutal tonight. Fortunately when Willis was removed from the game, the Marlins made a double switch, bringing Abe Nunez into left field (he walked in his only plate appearance). I can already feeling the platoon coming, at least until Conine warms up or gives up.

Despite the performances of Gonzalez, Conine, and Cabrera, the Marlins put together a nice win tonight. Dontrelle didn't continue his Ruthian performance at the plate (he was 0 for 3 with a strikeout, although he looked solid in his at bats). All in all a solid win for the Fish tonight to start out their three game set in the city of Brotherly Love.

Oh, and the D-Train, who didn't deserve the Rookie of the Year Award last year according to many, is 3 - 0 with a 0.00 ERA and a WHIP of less than 1. I suppose I shouldn't say that though because I don't want to jinx the guy.

Off to watch Mr. Bonds tee off against the Padres... But I'll leave you with a parting thought - why do the Blue Jays new uniforms showcase such a minimal amount of blue? I suppose that's like asking why the White Sox don't wear white socks (or why they - and the Red Sox - spell socks as "sox").

The Week to Come

As we enter the third full week of the season some patterns of normalcy are starting to return to the game. Barry Bonds is still Barry Bonds in that he appears to be on track to dominating another season, and possibly much of another decade at this point. Eric Gagne is still dominating opposing hitters, a mammoth blast to Barry Bonds over the weekend notwithstanding.

Other pieces of the baseball universe are still a little out of kilter here in mid/late-April. ARod.com is in a slump. While many expected he would struggle as he adjusted to the Yankees and the New York media, few expected a one hit performance in a four game set against the Red Sox. Other anomalies include the Detroit Tigers playing better than .600 baseball and that the Devil Rays are tied in the standings with the Yankees (although it’s for 3rd place in the AL East).

Where Miami’s beloved Florida Marlins stand right now is more of a mystery. Entering last weekend’s series against the Braves the Marlins were 8 – 1. They left the series, having been swept, with a still impressive record of 8 – 4, but without the momentum they brought into Atlanta. The Marlins have been helped by their young arms in that both the starting pitching and relief corps has been stronger than anticipated so far this year. However, the Fish’s bats have not followed suit. While the Marlins were expected to struggle relative to last year to some degree after losing the big bats of Ivan Rodriguez and Derrek Lee, some expected contributors – particularly Juan Pierre – have struggled out of the gate. Well that and that Miguel Cabrera lost a ball in the sun on Sunday, costing the Marlins a game.

As games scheduled for the third week of the season come, this week’s slate for the Marlins is relatively huge. Beginning tonight the Marlins play the Phillies three times at new Citizens Bank Park. While the Marlins owned the Phillies last year and opened up the 2004 series with a three game sweep at Pro Player Stadium during opening week, this three game series is important to the Marlins as they attempt to re-establish momentum before returning home to play the Braves over the weekend.

Winning both series – two out of the three games in each – would be huge for the Marlins. They are about to embark on a six game road trip next week to Colorado and San Francisco next week, where the team has traditionally not fared well. Although the Marlins defeated the Giants in last year’s playoffs, their road trip to SBC Park, or whatever they were calling it back then, was not a successful one. And regardless of what you think of the Rockies, sending the fragile egos and confidence of Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis, and Armando Benitez to the pinball machine that is Coors’ Field is always potentially devastating to a pitching staff.

Besides, the Marlins, Phillies, and Braves were picked by almost everyone for first, second, and third – in some order – in the National League East this year and the Fish won’t see the Braves until late June after this weekend and the Phillies until late July.

For the Marlins to emerge from these two series with four or more wins, we will likely need to see a few things change. One is the frequency with which Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo reach base. While rumors are swirling that the Marlins just aren’t going to run much this year, the fact is that the team’s two biggest base-stealing threats just haven’t been on the bases much so far. Juan Pierre likely put some of the questions about the running game to bed over the weekend when he stole both second and third in one trip around the bases on Sunday.

The rest of the “up the middle” portion of the Marlins defense is also critical to the success of the Marlins offense. While some could conclude that shortstop Alex Gonzalez started out hot last year while the Marlins struggled and that Gonzalez struggled last year while the team was hot, so it isn’t such a bad thing possibly to see Gonzalez struggle, it’s hard to believe that the club can continue to win with limited or non-existent production at the plate from their shortstop. The Marlins catchers are also critical to their success this week. The key hits Ramon Castro came up with against the Phillies in Miami will likely be needed again once or twice this weekend.

Production or the lack thereof from a left fielder is shaping up to be potentially the Marlins biggest hole this season. Jeff Conine, a traditional slow starter (that little phrase seems to be as much a part of his name as the “rocker” part is of Rocker Tommy Lee), looks old at the plate and in the field. His backup, Abraham Nunez, is not a young rookie (27) but is still unproven. Nunez has many supporters though, particularly after a strong performance this spring, but that came against suspect talent and more importantly, Nunez has never produced in the majors when it counts. Maybe he will. We know that Conine has, but the question there is whether those days are behind him or not.

Outfield production will be an interesting area to watch with the Marlins this year, particularly if they are able to stay in contention through July and if a team like the White Sox or Royals falters by then. Should that happen, the Sox’ Magglio Ordonez or the Royals’ Carlos Beltran may find themselves on the trading block. Being able to acquire a big bat like that would be a huge coup for the Marlins, particularly since the Red Sox, Yankees, and other big budget teams would surely be interested if those players were available for the stretch drive (despite the fact that both will be eligible for free agency as soon as the World Series concludes).

All in all it should be another fun week of baseball. Possibly by the end of the week we’ll have a better idea of where the contenders in the National League East are headed… or we may just have a group of teams muddled together somewhere around .500.

Don’t forget – fun and excitement returns for the Marlins tonight as Dontrelle Willis takes the hill in Philadelphia. If everything keeps going according to schedule, Willis should be back on the mound on Sunday against the Braves (and if you’re not in Miami or otherwise can’t attend, that game will be on ESPN – look for me in the stands).

Where April means something...

In contrast to the Major League Baseball season, college baseball is pretty much in full swing by mid-April. It’s something like the time after the trade deadline (end of July) and the expansion of rosters on September 1st in the majors. Some teams are still fighting for conference and possible postseason positioning. Who will make their conference tournament and who will host a regional is all still up in the air. At the same time, other teams already know they’re just playing out the string.

What also happens every April in college baseball is that the Miami Hurricanes play the Florida State Seminoles six times. Three games in Tallahassee followed by three games the following weekend in Coral Gables. For those of you who aren’t big followers of college baseball, playing six games in a season against a single team is a lot of games. Most teams don’t face each other more than two or three times per year. And when the Hurricanes move into the ACC next year, they will only face the Seminoles three times per season (Miami’s baseball team never joined the Big East, so the 2005 season will be their first as part of a conference).

If you didn’t know that six games was a lot for college teams to play against each other, you might also not know that Miami and Florida State are powers in college baseball much like they are in college football. Actually, the more you think about it, the more similar the teams are to their football counterparts. Both are perennial contenders with long streaks of postseason appearances. As in most every year, both clubs entered this year’s series ranked in the top 20 of the various polls. Also similarly to how things play out in football, Miami’s baseball team has won 4 championships (all since 1982) and Florida State has won none (although they have appeared in the college world series many times, including losing the championship game to Miami in 1999).

Like in football, these programs also turn out future professional stars. In recent years Miami has produced Major Leaguers such as the Phillies’ Pat Burrel and Jason Michaels and the Devil Rays' Aubrey Huff. Florida State has produced Braves’ outfielder J.D. Drew (and after this year, likely his little brother Steven as well), Twins’ first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz, and if you didn’t know it already, former Major Leaguer Deion Sanders. The Major League baseball draft, as it exists today, started in 1965. Miami has had a player drafted in every draft and Florida State has had a player drafted every year since 1966. Granted, the baseball draft is longer than those in the other professional leagues, but nonetheless, those are some pretty impressive feats.

Back to the games themselves…

This year’s series was much like those in year’s past. Hard fought, close games that could go either way. The stands are packed and both teams are fighting hard to position themselves for postseason play.

Florida State won the first game on April 9th 6 – 5 after scoring three runs in the bottom of the 8th to take the lead for good. Miami came back to win on Saturday and Sunday in Tallahassee, 17 – 11 on Saturday and 4 – 0 on Sunday. Sunday’s shutout was the first time in series history that the Hurricanes shut out the Seminoles at Dick Howser Stadium.

This past weekend started out much the same way the previous weekend ended, with the Hurricanes shutting out the Seminoles 10 – 0 on Friday night. The Canes were led by a 2 hit, 3 RBI performance by former NFL great Jim Burt’s son, Jim Burt. On Saturday night, the Canes ensured a win of the season series by outscoring the Noles 7 – 3. Highlighting (or low lighting as it were) this game was Florida State Manager Mike Martin’s accusation that the Canes were stealing the Noles signs by watching the game on TV in the clubhouse and relaying the catcher’s signals to the batter. Although the game was interrupted for more than fifteen minutes while the umpires “investigated,” no evidence of foul play was found (although I’m not quite sure how it could have been). Facing a sweep and a demoralizing trip back to Tallahassee, the Noles fought hard on Sunday and earned a 10 – 3 victory and their second win against the Canes this season.

Miami won the 2004 regular season series against Florida State 4 games to 2, but that’s not to say that these two teams won’t meet again this year. Both clubs are on course to earn trips to the postseason (Miami has been part of regional play for a record 32 consecutive years and FSU has appeared in 26 in a row), and it’s not uncommon for the teams to see each other in Omaha (Miami has been in 8 of the last 10 and 18 of the last 26 College World Series and Florida State has appeared in 11 of the last 17). In 2000, after Miami eliminated Florida State in the 1999 championship game, Florida State eliminated Miami in a three game Super Regional.

Hopefully we’ll see both of these two clubs in Omaha come June. Go Canes!

Doom and Gloom in Yankee Blue

While I would like to be amongst the first to declare the Yankees season a failure, it’s still only April and there’s plenty of time for things to shake themselves out. Yes, the Yankees are in 3rd place and have a record of 6 – 7 after losing three out of four games to the Red Sox this weekend.

Going into today’s game against the Red Sox, the Yankees had a team batting average of .212, good for last (14th) in the American League (the league average by the way is .272). The Yankees also ranked 9th in on base percentage (.334 vs. a league average of .347) and 11th in OPS (.711 vs. a league average of .776). The Yankees pitching staff is a more respectable 6th in the league in ERA and WHIP, but a less respectable 8th in batting average allowed (a questionable metric though) as they are allowing opponents to hit at a .280 clip.

The depressing offensive statistics are the result of a collective poor performance by most of the Yankees highest paid hired guns. ARod.com, the Yankees’ most prized off-season acquisition, is off to an incredibly slow start – hitting .156 with an on base percentage of .269. ARod.com also has more strikeouts (10) than walks (6), and although most of his hits have gone for extra bases, the totals are still small (four of seven). Yankee fans will be quick to tell you that this is to be expected because it takes awhile – two months is the figure I hear most commonly – for superstars to adjust to the big city. While this may be “true” I would think that ARod.com could afford a sports psychologist or some other sort of professional to prepare him for the rigors of the New York media. Apparently not though. Enough railing on ARod.com for now. I’ll be a fan of his as long as he keeps donating money to the University of Miami’s baseball program.

Jason Giambi, possibly in response to the BALCO and steroid jeers, is hitting a paltry .226 (although his on base percentage is extremely high due to a continued ability to draw walks). Backup first baseman Tony Clark and Travis Lee are hitting a collective .200 and are not drawing walks at a Giambi-like clip (a combined one walk between the two of them). Newly acquired centerfielder Kenny Lofton, who is now on the disabled list (although some would argue that in reality he was before, just not in actuality), is hitting only .167. The Yankees other centerfielder (not named Bubba), Bernie Williams, is hitting .212, but is reaching base and scoring some runs. Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, and Gary Sheffield have all had decent starts, although certainly nothing up to their All-Star/borderline Hall of Fame career standards.

What’s the point of all of this? Well, the Yankees are 6 – 7 now and two games back in the East. They are struggling – struggling mightily from a collective offensive standpoint, at levels that it is not realistic to expect them to sustain over the course of the long season. What does this mean for the rest of the American League East? Beware. The Yankees are lurking and no one has been able to put much distance between themselves and the Yankees. At likely their lowest point of the year, the Yankees are only one game below .500. It’s nearly impossible to even conceive that a lineup comprised of Jeter, ARod.com, Jason Giambi, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, etc, etc, etc, will hit a collective .212 for the entire season. They’re going to hit better. They are going to score more runs. And when they do those things, they are likely to win more games – whether Mike Mussina gets back into the swing of things or not.

The Weekend that Was

This past weekend’s slate of baseball games was more hyped than any other mid-April weekend in recent memory. Red Sox – Yankees headlined the weekend (with that series set to come to a conclusion with a Patriots’ Day morning matchup today). In addition, two West Coast powers – the Angels and Athletics squared off, with the A’s sending their triumvirate of aces to the mound (to mixed results).

There was another big West Coast series between two teams that started out their rivalry on the other coast. Giants versus Dodgers is always an intense series, regardless of what the standings say. While the Dodgers got the best of the series this weekend, Barry Bonds had a weekend to remember. The numbers he’s putting up right now are completely ridiculous. Aaron Gleeman had a great post on “Pace Fors” going into the weekend. Then Bonds went off and hit four home runs in three games, while hardly getting pitched to – including one blast to right centerfield on a wicked 3-1 curveball from Jeff Weaver yesterday.

The Cubs and Reds also surprisingly put together a great series all weekend. It started on Friday when both managers were ejected from a game that the Cubs (much to my chagrin) ultimately came back to win in extra innings. Cubs fans littered the field with beer cups and other debris following Manager Dusty Baker’s ejection. On Saturday, Kerry Wood was pitching a gem and Dusty left him in the game in the 9th. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Wood tired and may have been squeezed on a few calls, resulting in a walk that ended up having a big impact on the game. Wood spewed some heated words towards the home plate umpire and it wasn’t quite clear who was being held back from whom for a moment. Eventually Dusty lifted Wood from the game, but on his way back to the dugout, Wood exchanged words with the home plate umpire and was, somewhat unnecessarily, ejected from the game. Cub fans took this as reason to litter the field with beer cups and debris. The Reds went on to win that game to even the series. Yesterday in the rubber match, Reds catcher Jason LaRue looked much more like me than Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate. A few balls in the dirt got past him and a belt high swinging strike whiffed at by Derrek Lee completely eluded LaRue and could have cost the Reds the game. Greg Maddux was again roughed up for the Cubs and it was so windy at Wrigley that even Gold-glove caliber outfielders like Ken Griffey Jr. looked foolish on a fly ball or two. Although the game was not interrupted yesterday to remove debris from the field, at least one fan did attempt to shower Griffey with a cold one when he went back on a fly ball to center (fortunately for Ken, it looked like the beer missed him – on a random note though, why are Griffey’s new Nikes blue? Not exactly a Reds color. Seems random to me – maybe he was supposed to be traded to the Royals or Mariners by now).

I was also happy to see this weekend that the White Sox took two of three games from the Devil Rays in Tampa. Actually, I was only mildly pleased with this. Winning the series – any series – is good, but a sweep against Tampa would have been better and was almost expected. Loiaza looked good yesterday though, so that’s encouraging.

What was less encouraging over the weekend was the Marlins performance versus the Braves. While over the years the Marlins have usually performed well against the Braves in head-to-head matchups, they have never finished ahead of the Braves in the standings. After starting out the season 8 – 1, “fans” in Miami were starting to feel that this year might be the year. But the Braves swept the Marlins and in all likelihood killed the que of fans waiting to buy playoff tickets in Miami – or maybe those were just people who were waiting for the much anticipated, but to date only rumored, second distribution of replica world championship rings at the Pro.

Of the three losses, yesterday’s extra inning loss was far and away the most difficult to take. While the Fish’s bats were quiet all weekend, they still had a chance to win yesterday’s game until Miguel Cabrera inexplicably lost a ball in the sun. Cabrera was not wearing sunglasses and he said after the game that he never does because he finds them uncomfortable. I wish that a reporter in the locker room had followed up that response with a question about what looking directly into the sun without sunglasses on, like Cabrera did in the 10th yesterday feels like. I would suspect it’s slightly worse than uncomfortable. Particularly when the lost fly ball rolls up to your feet. Hopefully the good people at Oakley will talk Cabrera into an endorsement deal right away. It’s not exactly Oakley’s style, but you could work up some pretty funny advertising around the lost fly ball in the sun.

Overall what caught up with the Marlins this weekend was a lack of hitting. Since the Fish have a team ERA of less than 2, it went under the radar for the first week plus that the Marlins haven’t really hit well this year. Truth be told, they’re not going to hit as well this year as they did last year. Derrek Lee and Ivan Rodriguez are gone. Mike Lowell likely had a career year – despite the injuries. Juan Pierre, as much as I like and respect him, probably played a little over his head. But at the same time the slump that Pierre is in is just that, a slump, he’ll break out of it and when he does, the Marlins will be a different team. With Pierre on the bases, opposing pitchers have to be more aware of him than an average base runner and that likely means better pitches for Castillo, Cabrera, etc to hit.

Unfortunately though for Marlins fans, I think Mr. Marlin, Jeff Conine may be done. Hopefully in a few months I’ll be proven wrong and this will turn out to be just another of Conine’s traditionally slow starts, but this year I’m not so sure. Conine looks old and slow in the field and at the plate. A platoon with Nunez may not be such a bad thing at this point. Nunez was hot all spring and appears to be on the road to becoming a malcontent if he’s left on the bench. Not that I advocate playing someone just because he’s a whiner, quite the opposite actually, but it’s going to be hard to develop him on the bench and they can’t send him to the minors without risking losing him through waivers either.

Still though, a month ago if you’d told me that the Marlins would be in first place after twelve games with an 8-4 record I would not have believed you, particularly if you’d told me that Mike Lowell would be tied for the team lead in stolen bases and that Juan Pierre would have none. All in all, a great start to the year for the Fish.

It was a good run...

The Marlins are starting to get some respect. Despite getting swept by the Braves in Atlanta last weekend, the Marlins are still getting respect from the national media (also see CNNSI's power rankings) and even from the blog community. A big thank you to the unsolicited plug from Studes and The Hardball Times today. Hopefully we'll get some hits and I'll have some commentary that's worth reading.

And oh by the way, for those of you in town who haven't figured it out yet, Dontrelle Willis's 4th start of the year and second at home will most likely be on Sunday night against the Braves. It's a Sunday night baseball game of the week. I've been holding off on telling people this until I secured my own tickets, but now that I have some decent ones, I wanted to spread the word. Go out and get your own now because I'm sure PPS is filling up fast...

Playoff Like Atmosphere

Count how many times you hear that phrase said this weekend. There are some big baseball games slated for this weekend, well as big as games can be considering that it’s mid-April. Oh and there’s also, allegedly, playoff hockey and basketball too (I’ve only noticed as it interrupts ESPN’s baseball broadcasts – tonight’s double overtime hockey game brings us to the Padres and Dodgers already in progress in the fourth inning).

For this entire weekend we get to see arguably the two biggest powers in the American League face-off in what could be an ALCS preview (as division foes are forbidden from meeting in the Divisional round). One club will send three aces to the mound this weekend to face off against the other club’s offseason acquisitions, which include one of the biggest bats in the game.

And that’s just the Angels – A’s series. I haven’t even mentioned the little Red Sox – Yankees set.

In the National League, the highlight (in my possibly slightly biased opinion) is the Marlins – Braves matchup in Atlanta. While the Marlins have won two World Series in their now twelve year existence and have opened up strong, the Fish have never finished ahead of the Braves in the standings, although they have played well against the Braves head-to-head. Going into last weekend, I felt that the series against the Phillies could be a major test for the Marlins, particularly for their bullpen and new bats. The Marlins came through that test with flying colors. It was at home though, and this series against the Braves is their first real test on the road.

Much of the talk in Miami lately – at least on sports talk radio – has been about how the Marlins are not getting much respect, particularly nationally. If you follow the University of Miami much, like I do, you’ll know that this is a common theme in sports. Miami sports fans tend to think they’re being disrespected by default. Going into the season, prior to the Marlins 8 – 1 start, this was an easier argument to buy. Many prognosticators and pre-season publications picked the Marlins to finish third in the National League East, usually behind the Phillies and Braves. But that’s harder to say now. But what the media portrays doesn’t really matter anyway. Baseball is decided on the field, or as Kenny Mayne would say, by those little men who live inside your television.

The media may be coming around though on the Marlins. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing though as the Fish seem to have thrived as underdogs. Who knows how they might react as favorites, as implausible of a thought as that might seem. I read this account today on CNNSI in their power rankings (which at first glance appear to be upside down, but then you realize this is the first power poll of the season). The Marlins are rated at the top of the major leagues currently according to this source.

On a somewhat unrelated note, I was trading emails today with the proprietors of Dugout Dollars (a fine site for team and player payrolls if you haven’t been there already) and in the process of determining how much salary Ivan Rodriguez had deferred last year (which turned out to be $7 million of his $10 million contract), I found this little nugget from Rob Neyer (who I respect tremendously and who’s writing I thoroughly enjoy):

“In a specific sort of way, signing Pudge Rodriguez to a one-year contract -- with a no-trade clause -- for $10 million seems like something of a strange move for the Marlins. They apparently have designs on the National League East, and it's certainly true that stranger things have happened; after all, the Angels just won a World Series. But unless Florida's rotation suddenly emulates Oakland's rotation -- and Pudge has never been known for his brilliant work with pitchers -- the Marlins aren't going to win anything. Not with Alex Gonzalez at shortstop and one of the least productive outfields in the game.”

I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see it coming for the Marlins last year. I was excited about the potential of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, both of whom I had read about and seen in Spring Training. But I never imagined that they would step up and contribute all the way through the World Series last year. I also vehemently disagreed with the ownership’s decision to hire Jack McKeon last year. At the time I felt the team would be better served to bring in someone new who had not had an opportunity to manage before. But I was proven completely wrong about that.

So what’s the point here? Pre-season and early season predictions are all well and good. Trust me, I enjoy the debate and discussion as much as anyone else. But in the end, rarely if ever are even the experts amongst us right. That’s why they play the game and we all enjoy watching it so much. It’s not scripted and you never know what’s going to happen.

Enjoy the weekend!

Summer Topics
Awhile back I swore (even on this blog) that I would attend the 2004 College World Series in Omaha. While it still looks like the Canes have an excellent chance of making it there, I don’t think that I’ll be making the trip this season. I can’t find anyone willing to go with me for more than a week and I don’t feel like spending a full week’s vacation time to hang out by myself in Omaha. But I received an email today with details on how to buy general admission tickets to the games. You can buy a ten pack of tickets for only $50. That’s an outstanding deal for some outstanding baseball.

Instead of going to Omaha this year, I am going to go to the SABR convention in Cincinnati. I missed last year’s convention and regretted it all year. So this year I’m going (it will be my first). Many of the topics, particularly the discussion of the 1919 Black Sox scandal and Marvin Miller’s keynote address are of interest to me.

I wonder if many bloggers are SABR members who will be attending the session. If so, we should set up a side session to talk about blogging and other such things. If you’re a blogging SABR member, drop me a line and let me know. Maybe we can set something up.

For those of you who don’t know much about it, SABR is the Society for American Baseball Research. This year the convention in Cincinnati will take place from July 15th through 18th and will include presentations of research, panel discussions, Reds games, tours of Great American Ballpark, other ballpark tours and visits to a minor league game or too. Not for the faint of heart, but definitely for passionate baseball fans.

Batting Practice and Infield

ESPN's Buster Olney wrote an interesting piece today about Andruw Jones and his defensive abilities. While I know that many of you like to debate this ad infinitum, it's hard to question that Jones is an outstanding defender. The debate lies in how great of a defensive player Jones is.

I've always enjoyed watching Andruw Jones play, particularly in person. On a few occasions I've made the trip up to Atlanta to see the Braves in person and whenever (wherever too) I see them I like to arrive in time for batting practice (actually I like to do that regardless of who's playing). Most teams don't take infield anymore, but if they did I'm sure Jones would be a pleasure to watch. One of the fun quirks with Andruw during batting practice though is that he occassionally takes ground balls at shortstop. To my untrained eye, Jones always appears to be a fluid fielder with abilities that could make him a gold glove infielder if he were ever given the opportunity. That's not a move that I'd expect to see the Braves make anytime soon, but you never know. To see him as a defensive replacement sometime or to be shuffled around like Miguel Cabrera was for the Marlins in last year's playoffs would not surprise me in the least.

So if you're ever going to a Braves game, do yourself a favor and show up early. Just make sure to keep your eye on Jones when he's in the field and not just at the plate.

Are you kidding me?

Dontrelle Willis had his second start of the year for the Marlins tonight in San Juan against the Expos. In his first start, Dontrelle shut out the Expos for 7 2/3 innings while also going 3 for 3 at the plate and scoring one run. Willis had a highlight reel quality head first dive into home plate to score his run and another head first dive nearly into the dugout in an attempt to catch a foul ball.

Few, if any of us, saw tonight's appearance live - in person or on television - because the Marlins aren't broadcasting this series from San Juan (apparently expenses are high there, or so the rumor goes). But it sounds as if we missed a heck of a ball game. The Marlins won tonight 9 - 0, improving their record this season to 7 - 1. In addition, the Fish have shut out the Expos for 30 consecutive innings. When I heard this in the car tonight (on my way home from the Heat game), I figured that Dontrelle must have pitched another gem. I was really happy to hear this because I was worried that Dontrelle could pitch himself out of the rotation by the All-Star break, particularly if A.J. Burnett is able to return from Tommy John surgery earlier rather than later. However, the next thing that I heard was that Willis was removed from the game after only 5 innings. Here's what I thought the possibilities were:

1 - Willis was injured. Obviously not a pleasant thought.
2 - Jack McKeon removed Willis from the game in an act somewhat like a Little League mercy rule since it was becoming apparent that the Expos couldn't hit the D-Train.

It turns out that it was probably something else. Willis walked four batters in five innings (hopefully not a sign that the wildness is back) and threw 94 pitches. Given that Willis through nearly 120 pitches in his first start last week and that this game was well in hand after five, I'm glad to hear that McKeon took Willis out.

Well, I was until I realized that Willis was 3-for-3 at the plate tonight with a single, a double, and a 3-run home run. So after just four innings (Willis was pinch hit for in the 5th), Dontrelle was three-fourths of the way to the cycle. I'm not sure if a pitcher has ever hit for the cycle, but I'm sure it's been done, but probably not in a long time (maybe someone would be kind enough to look it up on Retrosheet and email me with what they find).

This performance at the plate comes on the heels of his 3-for-3 performance in his first start. After two games, yes - I know, it's only two games - Dontrelle is 6-for-6 at the plate with two extra base hits, three runs scored and three RBI. For those of you who are SABR-metrically inclined that's 1.000/1.000/1.667. For those of you who aren't so SABR-metrically inclined, that means Dontrelle has a batting average and an on base percentage of 1.000 (both perfect), and an slugging percentage of 1.667 (better than anything Barry Bonds or Babe Ruth ever put up over the course of a season). This adds up to an OPS (on base + slugging) of 2.667 (see SLG comment). Yes, I know they're not really "percentages" but if you've read this far, you probably know that's how they're referred to.

The only real knock on Dontrelle so far is that he doesn't walk when he's at the plate and that he walks too many when he's on the mound. Still, Dontrelle Willis is two-for-two this year in delivering his trademark fun and excitement to baseball fans.

Juice anyone?

While surfing around tonight I clicked on the "random blog" button on Baseball News Blog (I'm not savvy enough yet to steal this code and add this fun feature to The Book of Mike, but keep your eyes open for this change coming soon. Today I was fortunate enough to be taken to Only Baseball Matters which in addition to being a very nice looking blog also has plenty of good commentary (and cool features - like the visitor map, which I was able to steal - see far below on the right).

I found this post about Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire and how they are being treated about using steroids and similar substances to be very interesting. There's also a link on Only Baseball Matters to an article by Steven A. Smith (requires free registration with Philly.com to view) about the same subject.

I have to say that I agree with both writers. Bonds doesn't seem to be getting a fair shake in all of this. McGwire admitted to taking andro, which although legal in baseball at the time, was banned by every other reputable sports governing body - even the IOC which isn't so reputable. McGwire never admitted to taking steroids, but neither has Barry. And honestly, as much as I think this is still wrong, if McGwire took anabolic steroids in 1998 and Bonds took them in 2001, it's largely irrelevant. Well, at least to me. It doesn't make sense to go back and put an asterisk next to a record that someone set because they took a substance that was not illegal at the time. Yes, it's illogical that steroids weren't banned in baseball until after both men set their records, but that's just how it is. We aren't going back to adjust the records of Gaylord Perry and other spitballers, so we shouldn't do that to Bonds and McGwire either.

Sacks Full of Sox

In another apparent attempt to build the struggling reliever's confidence, Sox Manager Ozzie Guillen bravely inserted former fireballer Billy Koch into the 9th inning of today's game against the Royals. At the time this seemed like a fairly safe move. The White Sox had an 8 - 5 lead at the time and the bottom two hitters in the Royals lineup would be leading off the inning. Here's what Koch accomplished - 2/3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 HR.

Koch earned an ERA (I know it's not a great statistic but since the scoring came mostly via home runs, it's pretty fair today) of 54.00 today, bringing his total for the season to 11.25. Sometimes I wonder if I could rival such numbers in the major leagues.

Luckily Ozzie Guillen had saved Jon Adkins in the pen. Adkins came on and, after walking a batter, struck out alleged BALCO customer Benito Santiago to end the inning.

Today the White Sox were fortunate enough to face Curtis Leskanic and Nate Field in the 9th and they were able to come back with three runs to win the game (without so much as making an out). I doubt that this luck will carry through for the Sox throughout the year (particularly when faced with the Yankees and Mariano Rivera or the Angels and Troy Percival), but they got lucky today. Koch seems to have run his course though and is a danger to have in any game. I'm not sure what the Sox will be able to do about it exactly, as they're saddled with his contract and it's unlikely they'd be able to get anything of value - or anything at all really - for him at this point. Don't be surprised if a mysterious arm ailment develops for Koch in the near future and he's forced into a long rehab stint in Birmingham until he returns to form.

The Sox have to do something. They can't be looking up at the Tigers in the standings all year.

Blogger's Opening Day

One of the things I missed the most this offseason was the commentary each week at Mike’s Baseball Rants on Joe Morgan’s weekly chat on ESPN.com. This week Mike posted his takes on the first session of the season. Part of me always feels badly for laughing – both at Joe’s answers and Mike’s comments – because I sometimes enjoy listening to Joe Morgan on the Sunday night broadcasts. But at the same time Joe’s hokum and uninformed dismissal of statistics and analysis is disappointing and a disservice to young fans and those just becoming acquainted with the game.

Look at that – I think I just wrote my own Joe Morgan-quality contradiction.

In this week’s edition, Mike not only proves that he is funny, but also knows big words. I think this was my favorite line in the whole piece – “A great Morgan moment: he is the necromancer who can alloy gold with dross.”

Later Mike comments on Joe’s assessment of Derek Jeter’s fielding ability.

“There are a few things that go into fielding: getting to the ball, catching the ball, positioning oneself to throw the ball, and making a strong and accurate throw. Jeter has zero range. Well, that's unfair. He has below average range for a major-league shortstop. He just doesn't get to balls that other SS's do. It's evident from watching the games as well as the stats. Jeter does do everything else well so it appears to the untrained eye (by which, I mean YES broadcasters) that he is a decent shortstop, but he's not. Jeter is a superior offensive shortstop and if he can maintain that for another five years, he's probably a Hall of Famer, but he's not a good defensive shortstop. Let's all just take a breath and get over it.”

Stats are for losers

During last night’s Angels – Mariners telecast on ESPN, Rick Sutcliffe opined about Angels’ Manager Mike Scioscia’s disdain for statistics, particularly what Sutcliffe referred to as “the new statistics of the 21st century.” You know – things like on base percentage – the real cutting edge stuff. Forget that Branch Rickey subscribed to this new age philosophy more than 50 years ago, albeit without the aid of computers.

Sutcliffe went on to say that Scioscia feels that on base percentage is not important. What is important to Scioscia is how often the players at the top of the Angels lineup (David Eckstein and Darin Erstad) reach second base and are thus in scoring position for Guerrero, Glaus, Anderson, et al to drive in.

You say tomato, I say tomato. Sounds like the same thing to me. Unless the Angels have found a way to put someone in scoring position without being on base, on base percentage still seems like a valid and important stat to me.

Funny Baseball Blog

I'm not quite sure how I stumbled onto this site, but I found Idiots Write About Sports to be very funny. Check out the Jim Caple post while you're there too. Although picking on Mr. Caple is kind of like shooting fish in a barrel I am still amazed that he gets paid by Baseball America. I guess I'm even more amazed that I pay to read his drivel and Peter Gammons' (who I'm starting to like a little more on ESPN) bi-weekly homage to the Red Sox.

Barry

While I usually agree with what Rob Neyer and Aaron Gleeman have to say, I saw the Barry Bonds 660 Home Run hype a little differently. To me, this was to be expected as ESPN will hype anything and everything they possibly can.

You can usually tell it's an overhyped event when Chris Berman shows up. Actually, I don't think Berman works anymore unless it's something he's seriously interested. Good for him. If I was Chris Berman, I would too. I'm not saying I'd show up on Master's Sunday in a green jacket, but I'd be at every World Series and whatever else struck my fancy.

ESPN goes so far to hype things up that they even have their own kind of news now - ESPNews. Think about it. I know it's a network, but they turn plenty of things into events that simply aren't events. There was the reality show that was so insipid I'm not even going to look up the name of it or post a link to it. More recently ESPN hosted the self-proclaimed "Dream Job" reality show where one lucky contestant was chosen to be a SportsCenter host. Funny, but I haven't seen him on television since a day or two after that show ended.

ESPN, like so many other things in sports today, apparently thinks that the sports themselves aren't enough to sell themselves and appeal to viewers. So we are subjected to the likes of Stuart Scott, who for me at least, turns me off of watching sports highlights, which is admittedly tough to do.

Fearless Forecast

Granted these predictions are at least a week late. I promise you though that what I am predicting below has not been influenced by what has occurred during the first week (a little more than that actually) of the 2004 baseball season. So without further delay, here are my 2004 Major League Baseball predictions:

American League East
1st – Boston Red Sox
2nd – New York Yankees
3rd – Toronto Blue Jays
4th – Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5th – Baltimore Orioles

Although the Yankees have added arguably the games best player to their lineup with the Alex Rodriguez acquisition, I still think the Yankees have too many egos and too many injury risks to hold up over the course of a 162 game season. Yes, the Yankees lineup is intimidating. There are many perennial all-stars and a more than a few certain or at least likely Hall of Famers dotting their starting nine. But this is also 2004 and not 1999 or 1994.

As much as I like Kenny Lofton as a baseball player, this is not the vintage Cleveland Indians Kenny Lofton we’re talking about here. You remember him – the Kenny who wasn’t that far removed from taking the Arizona Wildcats to the Final Four and who scaled walls to take away home runs and who followed up his stolen bases with fairly frequent (for a lead off hitter at least) home runs. This Kenny Lofton is older and more fragile. He may have more balls hit over his head in the outfield this year than stolen bases. Similar things could be said of Bernie Williams, Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, and possibly even Derek Jeter.

That said, if the Yankees are in second or third place before the All-Star break, there’s nothing to say that the Boss won’t go out and acquire Jose Vidro, Magglio Ordonez, and Adrian Beltre. Or maybe Bubba Crosby will keep up the Mickey Mantle impersonation he displayed yesterday against the White Sox over the course of the season and all of us will forget about Lofton and Williams. Not very likely though.

I’m also probably one of a very small minority that really likes the Devil Rays. Lou Pinella and Don Zimmer are two coaches who I really like. But I don’t think that’s going to translate into many extra wins for them. I’m also a big Aubrey Huff fan (we went to school together at Miami). He, Baldelli, and Crawford should come together this year to form a very solid nucleus.

They still don’t have any pitching, but neither do the Orioles either really. Granted, me picking them for 4th place is more a stretch than anything else. The standings in this division have been exactly the same every year since 1998. You could make a really good argument – better than the one I listed out above – that last year’s results will repeat themselves.

American League Central
1st – Chicago White Sox
2nd – Minnesota Twins
3rd – Kansas City Royals
4th – Cleveland Indians
5th – Detroit Tigers

Jump all over me for this one, I don’t care. There are pros and major cons for each of the top three teams in this division – the White Sox, Twins, and Royals. Flaws so significant that if things break right the Indians could win this division. Despite what you may have seen in opening week, the Tigers aren’t really going to contend this year.

Ivan Rodriguez is a great player and a certain future Hall of Famer, but he’s not worth 50 or 60 extra wins to the Tigers. The sum of all their offseason acquisitions aren’t worth that.

Back to the top of the division, you could make a solid argument for the Sox, Twins, or Royals winning or losing the division this year. As a life long Sox fan, I’m picking the Sox. If they’re in the race close to the trade deadline this year, the White Sox should be better equipped than the Twins and Royals to make an acquisition to fortify their run to the postseason. That could be all they need this year to get into the playoffs. And as the Wild Card winning Marlins and Angels have proven over the last two seasons, all you need is to get into the playoffs and then anything can happen.

American League West
1st – Anaheim Angels
2nd – Oakland Athletics
3rd – Seattle Mariners
4th – Texas Rangers

Starting from the bottom here, I’m almost tempted to take the Rangers out of the cellar. If you read about the Mariners much, you read a lot of negative things. The Mariners are almost the anti-Moneyball team, eschewing data and statistics for tools and skills. Unfortunately for Mariners fans, Seattle’s front office has focused on aging players who used to be tools guys and not even on younger talent that might develop into something. Despite this, I still think Texas is flawed enough and lacks pitching to the point where they will be cellar dwellers in what is likely baseball’s best or most competitive division.

Oakland will of course contend this year - both for the division title and the wild card. Should they make the playoffs this season I really hope they make it out of the Division Series. If they aren’t able to, their playoff futility will rival that of the Buffalo Bills in the Super Bowl. Not quite the same scale, but a five year consecutive streak would be unprecedented.

I’ll be most curious to watch Arthur Rhodes as the A’s closer this year. Should he succeed I’ll be convinced that the A’s are really on to something. Actually, I’ll be convinced the A’s are on to something if new Dodgers’ GM Paul DePodesta trades Eric Gagne to help the Dodgers acquire some hitting. Oakland turns over closers yearly. Mostly it’s been speculated that this has to due with salary constraints. Maybe the Oakland system has found that dominance from closers is a limited time period thing. If that’s true the Dodgers would be able to sell Gagne at his peak value and possibly allow them to acquire some hitting. But I digress from the NL West.

The Angels (I’ll use as few references to Anaheim as possible in an effort to please Mr. Moreno) made a slew of offseason acquisitions. Vladimir Guerrero, Bartolo Colon, Jose Guillen, and Kelvim Escobar are the headliners. The Halos could also get better performances from Troy Glaus, David Eckstein, and Darin Erstad this year. Garrett Anderson, like always, can be counted on for solid production. Personally, I can’t wait to see what kind of numbers Guerrero is able to put up in a lineup where he has to be pitched to. Yes, I know that you can’t really pitch around Guerrero because he’s such a free swinger, but he’s such a dangerous hitter that he has still been in the top five in intentional walks over the last four years despite only having Jose Vidro in his lineup.

National League East
1st – Philadelphia Phillies
2nd – Florida Marlins
3rd – Atlanta Braves
4th – Montreal Expos
5th – New York Mets

This is where you can start to tell that my predictions are not based on the early part of the season. Going into the weekend I felt that although it’s early April, the Marlins – Phillies matchup was a critical one. Last season’s wild card race was decided by the head-to-head matchups between the Fish and the Phils. Somehow, for reasons still not clear to me, the Marlins seem to own the Phillies. This weekend’s sweep, including two come from behind victories was impressive. I think the Marlins are in the Phillies heads though, for whatever that’s worth. Allegedly, Phillies manager Larry Bowa elected to serve his one game suspension on Saturday instead of Friday or Sunday so that he wouldn’t have to be present for the Marlins World Series ring ceremony. Sounds like the approach of someone who’s beaten already and not the approach, if true, that I would want my players to see. Turn it into a positive or a motivating factor. Tell the team you want them to get their rings in front of the Marlins next year.

The sweep also exposed the Phillies bullpen, which most everyone though had been fortified over the winter – not only with the departure of Jose Mesa, but more importantly with the additions of Billy Wagner, Tim Worrell, Roberto Hernandez, etc. It didn’t seem to matter much this weekend though. Over the course of the season though I think it will start to show. Either that or Philadelphia fans will start to talk about some kind of closer’s curse dating back to Mitch Williams in the 1993 World Series or some other catastrophic event.

The Phillies are due to get significantly better contributions from Pat Burrell this year. They may even get better numbers out of David Bell. Plus their starters are solid if not glamorous.

It is hard for me not to pick the Marlins to win the division this year, but they’ve never won the division. Why should it start this year? Last year’s team finished about 4 games better than the Pythagorean Win Theorem expected them too. That margin was enough to send them to the playoffs instead of the golf course last fall. So they were a little lucky (but if you watched any Marlins games last year or even this year so far, you knew that). Ok, so if you’re a Marlins fan you don’t call it luck, you call it timely hitting and timely pitching or heart or whatever. Same difference.

But the Marlins took Derrek Lee, Ivan Rodriguez, Mark Redman, and Juan Encarnacion off the team. All four were significant contributors to varying degrees last year. Each of the position players will be replaced by a defensive downgrade (although that is more due to the superiority of the players the Marlins lost than deficiencies in the players the Marlins are using this year). The Marlins also lose speed with each of their 2004 replacement players and speed – whether stealing bases or taking an extra base – was a hallmark of the Marlins run to the championship last year. The loss of Mark Redman may be a wash depending on what Oliver contributes this year. At least in terms of dollars the Fish should come out ahead, although so far – with Mike Neu being in AAA, it looks like the Marlins just got a salary dump here and not much value in terms of players in return.

It pains me not to pick the Braves to make the playoffs or to win the division this year. John Scheurholz is clearly a smarter baseball man than me. He has a history of putting together winners regardless of the constraints he is faced with. But all good things must come to an end sometime and eventually if you pick the Braves to fail long enough you will be right. The Braves lost a lot of offensive fire power this year. They also lost a Hall of Fame pitcher, in Greg Maddux. But losing someone from the top of the rotation has become commonplace for the Braves over the years. This year though I don’t think that Scheurholz and Cox will be able to overcome their losses and the strength of the Marlins and Phillies. It’s been a great run though.

National League Central
1st – Houston Astros
2nd – Chicago Cubs
3rd – St. Louis Cardinals
4th – Cincinnati Reds
5th – Pittsburgh Pirates
6th – Milwaukee Brewers

Most everyone is picking the Cubs to win the division and it’s easy to see why. Their starting pitching is stacked and their lineup is strong. Derrek Lee could contend for MVP this year. Not only was he able to escape cavernous Pro Player Stadium for the friendly confines of Wrigley field, but he will also be able to feast on the pitching staffs of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee much more than he was able to with the Marlins.

Mark Prior’s injury scares me though. If Kerry Wood, Greg Maddux, Mark Clement, etc get shut down for any amount of time during the season, it could spell doom for the Cubbies. But I suppose you could say that of just about any team in the league.

The real reason I picked the Astros to win the division is that I don’t like the Cubs. In fact, my second favorite team (after the White Sox) is whoever is playing the Cubs.

Oh, and the Astros picked up Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte this offseason. Lance Berkman is due for a better year. And maybe Richard Hidalgo can be the Richard Hidalgo we all thought he was capable of being.

St. Louis just doesn’t have the arms to get it done this year, which is unfortunate, particularly if Tony LaRussa is going to resign if the Cards don’t make a serious run at the postseason.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, minor league development doesn’t count in the major league standings. If it did the Brewers would be one of this year’s top franchises. For off the field reasons, I hope the Brewers finish at the bottom this year so that when Commissioner Selig sells his stake in the club (via a trust or however he’s holding it) he only makes a moderately obscene profit. Anything more than that – anything at all actually – would be an injustice for how he has run baseball and that team. Hopefully the Brewers eventual new owners will take a page from the Oakland A’s and find a way to win with limited resources instead of just stealing public money for a new ballpark and then failing to put a winning, or even competing, product on the field.

National League West
1st – San Diego Padres
2nd – San Francisco Giants
3rd – Los Angeles Dodgers
4th – Arizona Diamondbacks
5th – Colorado Rockies

This division is up for grabs. The Giants and Diamondbacks are not as strong as in recent years. Both clubs have “regressed towards the mean” opening up the race to everyone in the division. The Rockies are probably the division’s only real long shot.

San Diego is in a new park and has made significant upgrades to their lineup. The performance of Khalil Greene will likely determine if the Padres are able to win the division. The Padres new sand colored road uniforms are likely to distract opponents enough this year to be worth an extra win or two. Come September that could be critical.

Barry Bonds will still put up huge numbers this season. I just can’t see Barry slowing down just yet. He isn’t surrounded by the same cast of characters that he was a few years ago though so it will be difficult for the Giants to win it all.

Had the Dodgers ownership situation been resolved earlier in the offseason and had Paul DePodesta had more time to shape his club this year, the Dodgers would likely be favorites in the West this year. Vladimir Guerrero was there for the taking, but ended up with the Angels because of the uncertainty regarding ownership. Having Vlad would have filled a big whole in the lineup for the ex-trolley Dodgers. Should the Red Sox falter this year it will be interesting to see if the Dodgers make a move for Nomar Garciaparra. The Dodgers could offer some cheap prospects to the Red Sox in exchange for enhancing the Dodgers ability to make a playoff run.

The Diamondbacks have the ability to win the division. I know that. I would just like to see things implode on self-righteous team front man Jerry Colangelo. I was sad to see it happen to his Suns this year, but Jerry told everyone that would listen that the Dbacks were rewriting how to run a baseball franchise when they came into the National Leauge in 1998. While they do have one World Series title to show for their efforts, they have more losses and deferred money to pay to players than anyone likes to own up to. Not exactly a model franchise in my opinion.

Awards
AL MVP – Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
NL MVP – Barry Bonds, Giants

AL Cy Young – Barry Zito, Athletics
NL Cy Young – Josh Beckett, Marlins (ok, so that’s one that I changed after the first week of the year)

AL Rookie of the Year – Bobby Crosby, Athletics
NL Rookie of the Year – Khalil Greene, Padres

Postseason
AL Wildcard – Oakland Athletics
NL Wildcard – Florida Marlins

ALDS
Oakland over Chicago
Anaheim over Boston

NLDS
Philadelphia over San Diego
Florida over Houston

ALCS
Anaheim over Oakland
NLCS
Florida over Philadelphia

World Series
Anaheim over Florida

If those predictions are remotely close, we’ll likely see some exciting baseball but possibly the lowest rated (in terms of television viewers) post-season since the advent of television coverage.

Sadly

In the processs of cleaning up the sidebar, which I'm sure many of you noticed had found it's way to the bottom of the page, I accidentially took out the comments for a moment. As you can tell, this caused all of your great comments to disappear into the cosmos somewhere. Now the ability to add comments is back, but your words are lost forever.

Ridiculous

For those of you who haven't already called to ask, yes, I was wearing a gray t-shirt and black hat at last night's Marlins game. Apparently I was visible for much of the ring ceremony on tv. I guess there are perks for having seats in the right-center gap!

Oh - and for those of you who are particularly astute - Hee Seop Choi's second home run last night, his third of the year and second of the game - did come precariously close to my seat once again. This one landed two rows up and about five seats over. Slightly farther away than Choi's debut homerun was from my seat. Sadly, I again had no chance to catch this home run as the crowd converged around me and moved towards the ball - me included - in an attempt to catch it. After my experiences with these two blasts I have much more respect for those cho catch home run balls and I now realize that's there's at least as much luck as skill involved in the equation. Many of us could catch a fly ball if left unimpeded by other spectators. But part of it is just being in the right place at the right time when you're surrounded by hundreds or thousands of others.

On a loosely related note, the Marlins broadcasters noted today that Jack McKeon refers to Hee Seop Choi as IHOP. As in the restaurant. Tommy Hutton asked Choi before the game if he frequented the establishment and Hutton seemed incredulous when he found out that Choi had never set foot in any of the franchise's locations. Hutton felt that since IHOP is the International House of Pancakes that someone as multi-national/cultural as Choi would surely have spent his meal money at an IHOP at least once or twice.

Attendance

Marlins attendance has been strong through the first five games of the season - well eclipsing last year's totals so far. This was to be expected I suppose since last year's attendance, like the year's immediately preceding it, was abysmal. Plus, as you may know, the Marlins are the defending World Series Champions this year.

However, last night's announced paid attendance of 45,725 was, at best, a gross fabrication. This year the Marlins have announced that "capacity" at carvernous Pro Player stadium is 36,331. I say "capacity" because Pro Player is also used as a football stadium for the Miami Dolphins, Orange Bowl, and FAU football. For those events capacity can exceed 70,000. Not all of those seats are available for baseball as some need to be pushed back in order to have a reasonably sized field, but baseball capacity can be more than 65,000 fans (after allowing for a batter's eye in centerfield and folding up some seats in left).

Generally, the 36,331 "capacity" number includes all of the lower level seats - except for the centerfield batter's eye and the folded up left field seats, all of the club seats, except for some in right field and center field, and the upper deck between the foul poles (between the bases and down the lines in what would otherwise be non-home run territory).

For last night's game the stadium was very full. Definitely the most full I have seen it for a regular season, non-opening day game since last year's matchup against the Diamondbacks featuring Randy Johnson and Dontrelle Willis. However, there were no fans sitting in the upper deck on the home run side of the foul poles. A number of us tried to guess the attendance before it was announced and no one - inlcuding many people who have been to at least dozens if not hundreds of events at the stadium - guessed that attendance was more than 37,000. Effectively we all thought that 37,000 was a full house given how they were making seats available. For the Marlins to announce a crowd of nearly 46,000 seems ludicrous. Granted getting into the stadium last night was a mad house - although that was due more to the replica ring giveaway fiasco than anything else - and getting out of the stadium was also chaotic - for reasons unexplained, but to claim that there were 10,000 more fans in attendance (paid attendance, whatever) than capacity is extremely hard to believe. Part of me wonders if the Marlins played up the attendance to calm the sentiment of the fans who were disappointed about not being able to take home one of the replica World Series rings (which although nice promtional items are nothing like what the players received - the only similarity is that they are all rings, but the giveaway rings are not even the same color scheme as the actual rings).

Dontrelle Watch

I know that most bloggers and SABR types are not huge fans of Dontrelle Willis. Many have said that he wasn't deserving of last year's National League Rookie of the Year award and that Brandon Webb was certainly more deserving. Many more have said that Webb is surely the better pitcher and will have a better career than Willis.

I'm not going to try to argue that point. To date, Webb has produced better statistics than Willis. Willis just has the hardware - both in terms of the Rookie of the Year award and a World Series ring. The other thing that Willis has that Webb - and maybe no one else in baseball has - is an electric personality and shows the enthusiasm when playing the game that most of us would like to think we had when we were 8. In his first start of the year on Thursday night, Willis through 7 2/3 of shutout baseball - walking only one batter. He also contributed three hits and scored a run. Dontrelle also made a diving attempt at a foul ball that Marlins management surely hopes to never see replicated again. All in all an exciting performance. After witnessing Dontrelle in person on Thursday night, I vowed to myself that whenever possible, I will make it out to Pro Player for any of his starts that I possibly can. Dontrelle Willis cannot be fully appreciated in a box score or on television.

By the way, the Marlins are 4 - 0 so far this year in games I have attended. They are 0 - 1 in games I haven't attended. For those of you who are about to do the math, that extrapolates into a 162 - 0 pace if I was to attend every Marlins game this year and a 0 - 162 record if I attended zero Marlins games this year. Although, it looks like Beckett is on again today, so this trend may already be reversing (as I'm watching the game on tv - and if you're not, you may want to tune in - looks like it could be a special performance).

Day Two and they're still coming...

Marlins attendance held up pretty well yesterday for game two. Well relatively well. The announced crowd of 17,622 was pretty respectable, particularly considering the Fish were playing the relatively star-less Expos (yes, I know that Jose Vidro, Orlando Cabrera, and Carl Everett at least are borderline stars, but they’re not exactly household names either – well, maybe in my house) on a Wednesday night. No, there wasn’t really a threat of rain or other inclement weather, but last night’s crowd far surpassed last year’s second game. On April 2, 2003 the Marlins faced the Phillies (somewhat more of a marquee opponent) for a mid-week match-up (a Wednesday night affair as well). Attendance for that game was announced at 10,537 but I suspect that was pretty generous as most of the crowds announced for Marlins game early last year were pretty generous.

Tonight’s crowd could be even better than last nights. While Toma Ohka takes the hill for the Expos, 2003 National League Rookie of the Year Dontrelle Willis takes the mound for the first time this season. Willis’s first start hasn’t been particularly hyped – certainly not to the degree that many of his starts were last year when ticket packages centered around his scheduled appearances. This may be because the Marlins are worried that Dontrelle may end up in the bullpen sometime soon. Regardless, I expect a crowd of more than 20,000 at tonight’s game (for game three last year the Marlins announced that a crowd of 14,585 was in attendance).

Attendance appears to be tracking well for the Marlins, as it did in Spring Training where Fish fans were over 50% more prevalent (according to ticket sales) than at 2003’s home appearances. Hopefully the Marlins will stay competitive and fans will keep coming out to the ballpark.

Even if the team doesn’t win, you can still come out and hear witty repartee like I did at Tuesday’s Opening Day (I overheard this conversation between two fans sitting behind me):

Idiot #1: “The Marlins should be called the Mikes this year – they sure have a lot of guys named Mike.” (For those of you who don’t habla Espanol, Miguel is the Spanish equivalent of Mike/Michael).
Idiot #2: “Yeah”
Idiot #1: “(Miguel) Cabrera, (Mike) Lowell, (Mike) Redmond, (Mike) Mordecai, (Matt) Perisho, and (Wil) Cordero.”
Idiot #2: “That is a lot of Mikes.”

It took great restraint, but I didn’t turn around and say anything to these two. The first guy was rattling off last names only, not realizing that some of the players he named are not named Mike anything. I liked the thought though. By default I’d have to cheer for the Mikes. I’d even buy a jersey.

Earlier in the game these two fools were also talking about “Vladimir” Nunez’s exploits this spring for the Fish and how his 10 home run Grapefruit League barrage earned him a spot on the roster. Their wives/girlfriends seemed so impressed by the knowledge these two fellows were imparting on everyone around us that I didn’t have the heart to tell them that Vladimir Nunez is now a member of the Rockies organization and that he’s a pitcher. I’m guessing it was rookie prospect Abraham Nunez that they meant to refer to.

Hopefully I won’t be seated near them tonight and hopefully they don’t have the same mini-plan that I do otherwise I’m in for a long season. Well that or I’ll have to start correcting them.

By the way, the White Sox are down 2-0 to the Yankees after one inning after surrendering two infield hits, two walks, and a sacrifice fly. It could be a long day for the White Sox. :-( At least the Cubs are losing too. :-)

Opening Day

Yesterday was the Florida Marlins Opening Day. I'll spare you most of the details on what actually happened during the game since I'm sure if you made it here on the web, you already know what happened or at least how to go to ESPN or somewhere and find a boxscore or account of the game. Although I’ve been to numerous baseball games over the years, this was only the second opening day game that I attended and the first since 1984.

My memories of that 1984 game are surprisingly vivid (I was 6 at the time). It’s the first baseball game I remember attending in person (it was cold, my dad took me out of school and had told me I was going to the “eye doctor” so that I wouldn’t tell anyone at school where I was really going). Like with the Marlins this year, expectations for the White Sox were high in 1984 as they were returning most of the lineup that won the 1983 Western Division by more than 20 games. In addition to seeing the White Sox lose that day, I distinctly remember my dad and I talking about how impressive the Tigers looked that day (they went on to win the World Series after leading the Division wire-to-wire).

We also still talk about the candy in the vending machines at Comiskey Park that day (when’s the last time anyone saw a vending machine at a baseball stadium? And these were the old time, cigarette style vending machines with the pull handles). The candy was so stale we were sure that the same Clark bars were being sold during the 1983 playoffs six months before (although subjecting the candy to Chicago’s cold winter seemed to be a cruel and unnecessary fate).

At yesterday’s Marlins game I didn’t encounter any stale food, but I did see lots of orange. I thought that was odd as orange isn’t typically a Marlins color. Actually, I didn’t think it was part of their color scheme at all. But the opening day program, schedule magnets, and other paraphernalia are all dominated by orange this year. Maybe some marketing genius thinks we’ll all buy orange things. Or maybe the Marlins think they can latch on to the Hurricanes and Dolphins success with orange in Miami.

Whatever the case, I was just happy that there was an opening day program this year. The Marlins are of course the team that did not have programs printed for the NLDS against the Giants last season. The team was willing to sell you a regular season program with an inaccurate roster for the Marlins and no information on the Giants however (the opening day program by the way contained good information on the Marlins, but no information on the Expos, although the scorecard did contain logos for the Marlins first few home opponents).

While there wasn’t much special or different about entering the stadium or the stadium itself this year, there was a lot going on before the game that made the experience unique and likely not something I’ll experience again for a long time. Army troops delivered flags and the World Championship banner to the field via parachute drops from high above the stadium. Different “famous” recording artists who I could not even pretend to have heard of before sang the Canadian and US National anthems. The Marlins also unveiled the 1997/2003 World Series Champions banner on the outfield fence.

There were also a slew of on-field award presentations before the first pitch. Most of the awards you’ve heard about – Dontrelle Willis received his National League Rookie of the Year Award, Josh Beckett the World Series MVP trophy. Some lower profile but no less distinguished awards were also presented such as Mike Lowell’s Silver Slugger Award and Jack McKeon’s Manager of the Year trophy. Team President David Samson was also able to get his little face into the limelight by allowing the team’s 2003 Organization of the Year Award (awarded by Baseball America) to be presented to him. In situations like these Samson often seems to be a petty and glory-hogging person. Given his role with the team it would have seemed more appropriate for him to hand the award to someone else – say General Manager Larry Beinfest than for him to accept the award himself. But Davey never likes to pass up an opportunity to have his picture in the paper or on television.

Overall, it was impossible for anyone who was at the game to miss the fact that the Marlins won last year’s World Series. Even if you arrived late you were able to see the World Series Championship flag raised in centerfield in the middle of the third inning. The ceremonies and presentations were numerous and drawn out, but well planned and enjoyed.

I found the player introductions to be very interesting. First the clubhouse people and coaches were introduced to polite applause. Then the bench players (including the non-starting pitcher) were introduced numerically. Many of the lesser known players and new players received about as much polite applause as the clubhouse manager. Other players who didn’t start, such as Dontrelle Willis and A.J. Burnett, received thunderous ovations. So did most of the starters. While this is to be expected for the most part, I clearly felt that most of the other players – such as Willie Harris and Wil Cordero didn’t receive much or any applause from the crowd simply because the crowd didn’t know who they were. Yesterday’s crowd was a crowd looking for excitement – not a crowd looking to see a great baseball game.

Luckily, we got both – excitement and a great baseball game. After three innings I started to think to myself that we could be seeing something special as Josh Beckett started out extremely hot for the Marlins. He was perfect in fact. Nine up, nine down – no hits, no walks, no nothing. Unfortunately it was not to last as Beckett gave up a few hits, but it was still a dominating performance. Armando Benitez’s first regular season appearance also added to the drama and the excitement of the game as he provided the Expos with the opportunity to rally late in the game. Although I’ve been a fan of Jose Vidro for a long time, I don’t think I’ve ever seen him hit a ball as hard and as well as his home run in the top of the ninth.

Hopefully Benitez will not be as “exciting” in future outings, although my hopes are not high. There was an interesting debate on the Marlins flagship radio station after the game yesterday about whether the team should provide McKeon with more Tums or rosaries for when he has to go to his bullpen this year. The bullpen is looks like a potentially major weakness for the Fish this year. You could almost feel the disappointment in the air when Chad Fox entered in relief of Beckett and struggled and the “who’s that?” heard around the stadium when Matt Perisho entered was not encouraging either. Then Benitez…

The biggest excitement of the day for me and my friends came when Hee Seop Choi homered in his first Marlins at bat. This was exciting for us because the ball came straight at us. I am convinced – and I’m sure you’ll agree if you see the highlight on SportsCenter – that I would have caught the ball had I not been hit in the back by the fool behind me right as the ball approached us. Appropriately the ball hit the jerk who hit me in the hat (which he was using to try to catch the ball), fell to the ground and was scooped up by his wife (after she and I both reached for it). If you saw her on local Miami TV – everyone interviewed her apparently – you now know what the woman who stole my fifteen minutes of fame looks like. Hopefully those people will be amongst the thousands that will never return to a Marlins game again this season. The guy who hit me proceeded to call everyone in his phone book to tell them that his wife caught Choi’s home run (leaving out the part about him dropping it). I believe he even called my own mother.

Overall Marlins Opening Day 2004 was an exciting experience. I thoroughly enjoyed it and I hope that the other 55,314 fans who attended enjoyed enough to decide to return to many more Marlins games this year. It feels like Marlins attendance this year will be as much of a discussion topic as their record and place in the standings. Tonight’s game (which I will not be attending) will be an interesting test. First night game of the year, beautiful weather and no local television coverage. But it’s against the Expos on a Wednesday night. My guess is 12,000 fans. I expect good crowds (30,000 plus) on Friday and Saturday night against the Phillies though. Time will tell.

I’m just glad I was able to enjoy the opening day of a defending World Series Champion. That’s probably not something I’ll be able to do again for a long time.